Maybe a few snowshowers next weekend …

Arleen “plunged” into the frigid San Juan River to support the Humane Society of Pagosa Springs. Thanks to everyone who participated and everyone that came out to support the “plungers”! – Pic taken 1/17/2026

Arleen “plunged” into the frigid San Juan River to support the Humane Society of Pagosa Springs. Thanks to everyone who participated and everyone that came out to support the “plungers”! – Pic taken 1/17/2026

Saturday – 17 Jan 2026 – 6:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 50, Low: 18, Peak Wind: 7mph

Friday: High: 47, Low: 15, Peak Wind: 29mph

Strong winds and wind shear canceled the Winter Fest balloon launch this morning. Tomorrow looks a lot better!

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3855 / 19765-26 / 1947

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite late Saturday afternoon – The jet stream, purple arrows, is in our “neighborhood” and helped kick up our winds today. The pesky ridge along the west coast, jagged blue line, will continue to force the storm track well to our north.
Water vapor satellite late Saturday afternoon – The jet stream, purple arrows, is in our “neighborhood” and helped kick up our winds today. The pesky ridge along the west coast, jagged blue line, will continue to force the storm track well to our north.

There is nothing on radar in our area Saturday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** We’ll have lots of blue sky and will be dry through most of Friday. ***

*** Late Friday and next weekend spotty snowshowers are possible. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Saturday through next Friday afternoon… The ridge will be in control and continue to give us unseasonably warm and dry weather.

Late Friday and next Weekend… Another disorganized, weak storm will move through the region. I’m concerned that this system will be a bust, but right now I see the potential for occasional spotty snowshowers.

Snow amounts…

Mountains: 3-5”

Pagosa area: around 1”

*** I’ll fine tune snow amounts and timing as the data gets better. ***

Temps…

Saturday night lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Sunday through Friday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Next weekend highs will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.

Winds…

Sunday through Thursday, each afternoon peak winds will be 5-10mph in the Pagosa area and 15-20mph in the high country.

Friday and next Saturday, afternoon gusts will be around 15mph in the Pagosa area and 30-35mph in the high country.

Next Sunday, afternoon peak winds will be around 10mph in the Pagosa area and around 20mph in the high country.

NBM precip to next Sunday at 11pm shows 1.7” in the Pagosa area and 3-5” near Wolf Creek.
NBM snowfall to next Sunday at 11pm shows 1.7” in the Pagosa area and 3-5” near Wolf Creek.

26 Jan to 1 Feb… I don’t see any big storms on the horizon.  The dry winter will continue.

These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.39” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.30”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 0.24”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 0.34”.
These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.39” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.30”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 0.24”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 0.34”.
Wolf Creek Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 5.8”. Snow amounts continue to trend down.
Wolf Creek Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 5.8”. Snow amounts continue to trend down.
Pagosa Springs Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 2.9”.
Pagosa Springs Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 2.9”.

Pagosa Weather Admin notes…

1. Pagosa Weather is between addresses because of the closure of the UPS store. We’ll update you when we have another one.

2. We are seeking a Volunteer “Member at Large” for the Pagosa Weather Board. You’ll be invited to attend our annual meeting at end of January. Email Arleen at pagosaweather@gmail.com if interested.

The next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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