It was great to see our Winter Fest balloons yesterday! – Pic taken by Lucinda T. on 1/18/2026
Monday – 19 Jan 2026 – 3:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Saturday: High: 47, Low: 18, Peak Wind: 35mph at 10:15am – cancelled the balloon launch
Sunday: High: 47, Low: 13, Peak Wind: 9mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 38 | 54 / 1944 | 4 | -33 / 1943 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Current satellite and radar…
There is nothing on radar in our area Monday afternoon.
Forecast highlights…
*** Might see the northern lights tonight! ***
*** We’ll have lots of blue sky and will be dry into Friday morning. ***
*** Friday afternoon into Saturday evening scattered snowshowers are likely. ***
*** Sunday and through next week will be dry. ***
Forecast details…
Rest of Monday through Friday morning… The ridge will be in control and continue to give us unseasonably warm and dry weather.
Clouds will start increasing Thursday afternoon as the ridge weakens and moves to our east.
Friday afternoon into Saturday evening… Another disorganized storm will move through the region. Forecast models are trending up for precip, but I don’t like how things are lining up aloft.
Snow amounts…
Mountains: 4-7”
Pagosa area: around 1-3”
*** I’ll fine tune snow amounts and timing as the data gets better. ***
Sunday and next Monday… A ridge build over the region and dry us out.
Temps…
Monday through Thursday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Friday highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.
Saturday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low to high teens.
Sunday and next Monday highs will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.
Winds…
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, each afternoon peak winds will be 5-10mph in the Pagosa area and 15-20mph in the high country.
Friday and Saturday, afternoon gusts will be around 15mph in the Pagosa area and 30-35mph in the high country.
Sunday and next Monday, afternoon peak winds will be around 10mph in the Pagosa area and around 20mph in the high country.
*** All of these models have recently trended up. I don’t like how things line up aloft so I’m going with lower snow amounts at this time. If the models stay consistent over the next few days, I’ll bump up my snow amounts in my next forecast. ***
26 Jan to 3 Feb… The forecast models are getting more erratic, but don’t show anything big on the horizon.
Both models are trending up, but the Euro is trending up more.
Snow amounts have trended up for the Friday/Saturday storm and then it’s pretty dry.
Pagosa Weather Admin notes…
1. Pagosa Weather is between addresses because of the closure of the UPS store. We’ll update you when we have another one.
2. We are seeking a Volunteer “Member at Large” for the Pagosa Weather Board. You’ll be invited to attend our annual meeting at end of January. Email Arleen at pagosaweather@gmail.com if interested.
The next post will be on Wednesday.
– Shawn
