Bad news for snow lovers …

Thanks to the groomers up at Wolf Creek for making the groomed runs fun! – Pic taken 1/14/2026

Thanks to the groomers up at Wolf Creek for making the groomed runs fun! – Pic taken 1/14/2026

Thursday – 15 Jan 2026 – 3:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 49, Low: 19, Peak Wind: 9mph

Friday: High: 53*, Low: 24, Peak Wind: 17mph

* Ties the record high set on 14 Jan 1987. *

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3955 / 19735-23 / 1963

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Current satellite and radar…

Visual satellite Thursday afternoon – The Rex block off the west coast is keeping the storm track well to our north.  There are very few clouds over most of the western US.
Visual satellite Thursday afternoon – The Rex block off the west coast is keeping the storm track well to our north.  There are very few clouds over most of the western US.

There is nothing on radar in our area Thursday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** We’ll have lots of blue sky and will be dry for another week. ***

*** The storm around 23 and 24 Jan looks weaker and weaker. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Thursday through next Thursday afternoon… The ridge will be in control and continue to give us unseasonably warm and dry weather.

Temps…

Thursday night lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.

Friday highs will be in the mid-40s to the low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Saturday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Sunday through next Thursday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.

Winds…

Friday and Saturday, afternoon gusts will be around 15mph near Pagosa and 30-35mph in the high country.

Monday through next Thursday, each afternoon peak winds will be 5-10mph in the Pagosa area and 15-20mph in the high country.

NBM precip to next Thursday at 11pm shows a little precip for the northern Colorado mountains and nothing for southern Colorado.
NBM precip to next Thursday at 11pm shows a little precip for the northern Colorado mountains and nothing for southern Colorado.

22 Jan to 30 Jan… The ridge will weaken just enough to allow a weak storm to move through 23 and 24 Jan and then the ridge wants to build right back up – ugh.

On 23 and 24 Jan it looks like the mountains will get 2-4” of snow and the Pagosa area could get around 1”.

These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.49” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.34”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 0.39”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 0.24”.
These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.49” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.34”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 0.39”. In the bottom right, GFS AI ensemble shows 0.24”.
Wolf Creek Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 8.4”. Snow amounts are trending down.
Wolf Creek Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 8.4”.
Snow amounts are trending down.
Pagosa Springs Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 3.6”.
Pagosa Springs Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 3.6”.

The next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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