Sunny, warm, and dry weather continues…

Darrell and Zora are such fun dogs! They’ve been waiting to be your best friend at the Humane Society of Pagosa Springs for over a year.

Sunday – 14 Dec 2025 – 5:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 57* – beat the old record of 55, Low: 22, Peak Wind: 6mph

Saturday: High: 55* – beat the old record of 54, Low: 20, Peak Wind: 5mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
39	58 / 1929	4	-20 / 1949

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – The giant high has weakened a little and split in two. It’s temporary. The two ridges, jagged blue lines, are still strong and continue to force the storm track well to our north.

There is nothing on radar in our area Sunday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun, mostly dry, and warm temps through 23 Dec. ***

*** Weather pattern will try to get more active starting around 24 Dec. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Sunday through next Weekend… A giant, blocking, evil ridge is forcing the storm track well to our north. We’ll have lots of sun and temps 10-15 degrees above average.

Temps…

Monday and Tuesday near record highs in the low to mid 50s and lows will be in the mid- teens to mid-20s.

Record highs…

Sunday: 58 in 1929

Monday: 57 in 1969

Tuesday: 60 in 1959

Wednesday through next weekend highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Winds…

Afternoon peak winds will be around 10mph each day.

*NBM precip to 23 Dec at 11pm – No precip is expected for southern CO while the northern CO could do pretty good.*

The 10-14 day period… The giant, blocking, evil ridge is expected to shift towards the Gulf around 23 Dec. This would allow a long southwest fetch to push moisture into the desert Southwest. Right now jetstream support and storm energy look weak so precip amounts have trended down.

Of course there is no cold air to our southwest, so this will be a warm system with snow levels around 8,000ft.

This is 12-15 days out, so I have no confidence in the details, but this is how things look right now…

The best chance for precip is 25 Dec through 27 Dec.

Mountains: 10-20”

Pagosa area above 8,000ft: 2-4”

Pagosa are below 8,000ft: 1-2” – would fall overnight and then melt during the day

*** Again, I have no confidence in the timing or snow amounts. Both are very likely to change as the storm gets closer and the data gets better. ***

*The CPC 8-14 day temp outlook shows an 80-90% chance for above average temps.*

*The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 40-50% chance for above average precip.*

These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.81”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.79”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble shows 1.23”. In the bottom right, Canadian ensemble shows 0.69”.

*Wolf Creek Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 9.8”. Precip amounts have trended down over the last couple of days.*

*Pagosa Springs Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 3”.*

The next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon