Near record highs through Monday – potential for snow on Christmas …

Warm temps are melting snow in the Pagosa area but there’s still plenty of fun snow in the mountains – Pic taken by Arleen on 12/12/2025

Friday – 12 Dec 2025 – 2:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 49, Low: 19, Peak Wind: 9mph

Thursday: High: 54, Low: 21, Peak Wind: 8mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
40	55 / 1934	6	-32 / 1961

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite Friday afternoon – The big, evil, blocking high is forcing the storm track well to our north. Dry, sunny, warm weather will continue until the high weakens or moves.*

There is nothing on radar in our area Friday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun, mostly dry, and warm temps through 21 Dec. ***

*** Weather pattern trying to get more active starting around 22 Dec and lasting through Christmas. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Friday through next Weekend… A giant, blocking, evil ridge is forcing the storm track well to our north. We’ll have lots of sun and temps 10-15 degrees above average.

Temps…

Friday through Tuesday near record highs with temps in the low to mid 50s and lows in the mid- teens to mid-20s.

Record highs…

Friday: 55 in 1934

Saturday: 54 in 1929

Sunday: 58 in 1929

Monday: 57 in 1969

Tuesday: 60 in 1959

Next Friday through next weekend highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Winds…

Afternoon peak winds will be around 10mph each day.

NBM precip to 21 Dec at 11pm – No precip is expected is for southern CO while northern CO could get a little. — *NBM precip to 21 Dec at 11pm – No precip is expected for southern CO while northern CO could get a little.*

The 10-14 day period… The giant, blocking, evil ridge is expected to shift towards the Gulf around 21 or 22 Dec. This would allow a long southwest fetch to push moisture into our area. Of course there is no cold air to our southwest, so this could be a warm system with snow levels 7,500-8,000ft.

This is 12-15 days out, so I have ZERO CONFIDENCE in the details, but this is how things look right now…

The best chance for precip is the night of 24 Dec through 26 Dec.

Mountains: 12-24”

Pagosa area above 8,000ft: 3-6”

Pagosa are below 8,000ft: 1-3” – would fall overnight and then melt during the day

*** Again, I have zero confidence in the timing or snow amounts. Both are very likely to change as the storm gets closer and the data gets better. ***

*The CPC 8-14 day temp outlook shows an 80-90% chance for above average temps.*

*The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 40-50% chance for above average precip.*

These are the 15-day ensemble precip totals for the four primary models. In the upper left, Euro ensemble shows 0.95”” in the Pagosa area. In the upper right, Euro AI ensemble shows 0.92”. In the bottom left, GFS ensemble 1.41”. In the bottom right, Canadian ensemble shows 1.50”.

*Wolf Creek Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 13”. Precip amounts continue to trend up towards the end of the period.*

*Pagosa Springs Euro ensemble 15-day snow shows 3.7”.*

The next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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