More mountain snow Wednesday night through Thursday night…

It finally looks like winter! – Photo taken 11/18/2025

Tuesday – 18 Nov 2025 – 2:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 57, Low: 28, Peak Wind: 36mph

Monday: High: 41, Low: 28, Peak Wind: 16mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
46	64 / 1943	15	-15 / 1958

Precipitation summary… Late Sunday afternoon the first band of showers and thunderstorms moved west to east across Archuleta County and then scattered showers persisted into Monday afternoon. The snow level dropped to around 7,600ft early Monday morning.

I estimate that 7-8” fell up at Wolf Creek.

*CoCoRaHS 2-day precip reports ranged from 0.32” to 0.93”. Locations above 7,600ft in the Pagosa area got up to ¾” of snow.*

*Arleen and Tommy measured 6” of snow on Wolf Creek Pass yesterday around 10am*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite early Tuesday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue lines, has moved to our east. Upper-level southwest flow, green arrows, will push more clouds into the area ahead of the low. The low is expected to track to our south, but if it goes a little farther north, we’ll get more precip.

*Radar at 2:10pm Tuesday – Bands of showers are spinning counter-clockwise around the low off the southern CA coast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** A few spotty showers early Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening – best chance for precip Wednesday night through Thursday night – spotty showers into Friday afternoon over the mountains. ***

*** Expect winter driving conditions on Wolf Creek Pass Wednesday night into Friday morning. ***

*** Saturday through next Tuesday will be mostly dry with temps 5-10 degrees above average. Sunday is the exception with a little bit of snow possible in the mountains. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Tuesday… Clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next low-pressure system.

Early Wednesday morning into Friday afternoon… A low will move slowly west to east through southern CA, central AZ, and central NM . It will push bands of showers through our area. If the low tracks a little farther north, precip amounts will be higher. If it tracks a little farther to the south, it will be a dud.

Timing… A few spotty showers are possible early Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening, mostly over the mountains. The best chance for precip is Wednesday night through Thursday night. Scattered showers are possible into Friday afternoon, mostly over the mountains.

Snow levels…

Early Wednesday morning: around 8,500ft

Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening: 9,000ft to 9,500ft

Sunrise Thursday to sunset Thursday: around 8,500ft

Early Friday morning: 7,500ft

Noon Friday: 8,000ft

Snow forecast…

Mountains above 9,000ft: 4-8” – most will fall Wednesday night through Thursday night

Valley above 7,600ft: a dusting 1” – will fall Thursday night

Valley below 7,600ft: none to a dusting

Late Friday afternoon through next Tuesday… A system will skirt to our south on Sunday and could drop an inch of snow in our mountains. Otherwise ridging will give us scattered clouds and temps 5-10 degrees above average.

Temps…

Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

Thursday and Friday highs will be in the near 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Saturday through next Tuesday highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph.

NWS snow forecast shows a trace near Pagosa and up to 12” in our mountains. Most of this will fall Wednesday night through Friday night. *** I think these amounts are a little high because the low will track will farther south and snow ratios will be low due to warm temps into Thursday evening. *** — *NWS snow forecast shows a trace near Pagosa and up to 12” in our mountains. Most of this will fall Wednesday night through Thursday night.*
*** I think these amounts are a little high because the low will track will farther south and snow ratios will be low due to warm temps into Thursday evening. ***

The 8-14 day period… I think most of this period will be dry until around 1 Dec and then the weather pattern will get more active.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 3 Dec at 5am shows 10-14” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 6-10”. The Euro expects more snow for us. Go Euro! — *On the top, Euro ensemble snow to 3 Dec at 5am shows 10-14” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 6-10”. The Euro expects more snow for us. Go Euro!*

Euro ensemble 15-day snow for Wolf Creek shows 20”. Note at the end of the period precip amounts vary between 1” and 4.5” – that’s a huge difference. Right now I agree with the mean so this 20” looks reasonable to me.

Unless there’s a significant change to my forecast, the next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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