Cool morning clouds – Photo taken on 11/16/2025
Sunday – 16 Nov 2025 – 3:45pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Friday: High: 63, Low: 25, Peak Wind: 9mph
Saturday: High: 66, Low: 26, Peak Wind: 9mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 48 | 69 / 1943 | 15 | -15 / 1955 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Current satellite and radar…
Forecast highlights…
*** There is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft. 4-8” of snow and winds gusting to 45mph are expected from 4pm Sunday to 5am Monday. ***
*** Expect a few wet snowflakes in the Pagosa area. ***
*** A few spotty showers Tuesday night – another weak storm Wednesday night into Thursday night – a few spotty showers through Friday afternoon. ***
*** Saturday through next Monday will be dry with temps near average. ***
Forecast details…
Rest of Sunday through sunrise Monday… A fast-moving cold front will move west to east across Archuleta County Sunday evening. A band of moderate to heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will move through ahead of the front roughly 4-7pm. Then scattered showers will persist until 5-6am Monday, mostly over the mountains.
Snow levels…
Sunday 4pm to 9pm: around 10,500ft dropping to 8,500ft – heaviest precip
Sunday 9pm to midnight: 8,500ft dropping to 8,000ft – scattered showers
Midnight to sunrise Monday: 8,000ft dropping to 7,200ft – spotty showers, mostly over the mountains
Snow forecast…
Mountains above 10,000ft: 5-9”
Valley above 8,000ft: a dusting to 1”
Valley below 8,000ft: none to a dusting
Late Monday morning through Tuesday morning… We will get a short break between systems. It will remain unsettled with mostly cloudy skies and a few spotty showers, mostly over the mountains. Precip amounts will be light.
Tuesday afternoon through Friday afternoon… The jet stream and storm track will remain active for us. A low will move slowly west to east through southern CA, central AZ, and central NM . It will push bands of showers through our area.
The best chance for precip is Tuesday night and then again Wednesday night through Thursday night. Scattered showers are possible through Friday afternoon.
Snow levels will start around 8,500ft Tuesday evening and then bounce around between 7,000ft and 8,000ft. *** Roads could get icy each night and then thaw each morning. ***
Snow forecast for this period – most of this will fall Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 4-8”
Valley above 7,600ft: 1-3”
Valley below 7,600ft: up to 1”
Friday, Saturday, and next Sunday… A ridge will move through the region and keep us dry. Temps will be near average.
Temps…
Sunday night lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.
Monday highs will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.
Thursday and Friday highs will be in the near 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Saturday and Sunday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.
Winds…
Sunday late afternoon and evening gusts will be around 25mph in the valley and 35-45mph in the mountains.
Monday and through next weekend afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph.
The 8-14 day period… We’ll be on the southern edge of the storm track. I see a few chances for light precip, but there is nothing big on the horizon.
None of the storms are big, but the cumulative effect could be pretty good.
Unless there’s a significant change to my forecast, the next post will be on Tuesday.
– Shawn
