Incredible Aurora show last night! We might be treated to another show tonight, but there will be more clouds. – Photo taken on 11/11/2025
Wednesday – 12 Nov 2025 – 3:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Monday: High: 60, Low: 23, Peak Wind: 9mph
Tuesday: High: 61, Low: 24, Peak Wind: 8mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 52 | 70 / 1989 | 17 | -8 / 1940 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Current satellite and radar…
The low, currently well off the coast, will move towards southern CA through Saturday and then move through our area the second half of Sunday.
The yellow arrows indicate upper-level flow and the red arrows indicate the forecast direction of the low.
There is nothing on radar in the Pagosa Springs area Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast highlights…
*** Dry through Saturday evening. ***
*** Late Saturday night into Monday morning there will be mountain snow and a few snowflakes in the valley. The best chance for precip is late Sunday morning through Sunday evening. ***
*** It will remain unsettled through next week with more chances for snow. ***
Forecast details…
Rest of Wednesday through Saturday evening… The ridge will weaken and slowly move to our east. We’ll continue to see patches of mid and high clouds, but we’ll stay dry. Temps will remain 5-10 degrees warmer than average.
The storm I was expecting on Friday will stall over southern CA and then move through our area late Sunday.
Late Saturday night into early Monday morning…
Timing… Spotty showers will start over the mountains after midnight Saturday and then become more widespread late Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Sunday night into early Monday morning hit and miss showers will persist over the mountains and precip amounts will be low.
Snow levels…
Saturday night to sunrise Sunday 10,500ft dropping to 10,000ft
Sunday sunrise to late Sunday evening 10,000ft dropping to 8,500ft
Late Sunday evening to sunrise Monday 8,500ft dropping to 7,500ft
Snow forecast…
Mountains above 10,000ft: 5-10”
Valley above 8,500ft: 1-2”
Valley above 7,500ft to 8,500ft: a dusting to 1”
Valley below 7,500ft: none to a dusting
Late Monday morning through Tuesday evening… It will remain unsettled with mostly cloudy skies and spotty showers, mostly over the mountains. Precip amounts will be light.
Tuesday night through next Saturday… The jet stream and storm track will remain favorable for us. One or two more low-pressure systems will move through the region. Timing and snow amounts are uncertain.
Snow levels will bounce around between 7,000ft and 8,000ft.
ROUGH snow forecast for this period…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 5-10”
Valley above 7,600ft: 2-4”
Valley below 7,600ft: 1-2”
Temps…
Rest of Wednesday through Saturday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s. Wednesday through Friday lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Saturday night lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.
Sunday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.
Monday and through the rest of next week highs will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.
Winds…
Afternoon gusts through Saturday will be 10-15mph.
Sunday late afternoon and evening gusts will be around 25mph in the valley and 35-45mph in the mountains.
Monday through next Saturday afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph.
The 8-14 day period… The storm track will dip farther south, and a few low-pressure systems will move through the Four Corners region. The outcomes vary considerably between a couple of wimpy storms and a couple of decent ones, but the cumulative effect could be pretty good.
None of the storms are big, but the cumulative effect could be pretty good.
The next post will be on Friday.
– Shawn
2 Responses
Please add me to weather updates
Duana, I added you to the list. You should get an email now when we send a new weather post. Thank you for following us!