An active pattern for much of the next two weeks…

A big thanks to all Veterans! – Photo taken at the US Air Force Academy on 11/8/2025

A big thanks to all Veterans! – Photo taken at the US Air Force Academy on 11/8/2025

Monday – 10 Nov 2025 – 2:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 56, Low: 22, Peak Wind: 7mph

Sunday: High: 57, Low: 21, Peak Wind: 8mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5269 / 1980180 / 1948

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, is weakening and moving slowly east. The two low pressure systems will form one big trough by Thursday and then move through the desert Southwest over the weekend.
Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, is weakening and moving slowly east. The two low pressure systems will form one big trough by Thursday and then move through the desert Southwest over the weekend.

There is nothing on radar in the Pagosa Springs area Monday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun and dry through Thursday. ***

*** Friday, Saturday, and Sunday expect some mountain snow and a few snowflakes in the valley. The best chance for precip is late Friday morning through Friday night. ***

*** It will remain unsettled through next week with more chances for snow. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Monday through Thursday… Ridging will give us lots of sun and dry weather. Temps will be 5-10 degrees above average. Clouds will increase Thursday as the ridge moves to the east.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday… Yesterday’s model runs indicated the first low-pressure system taking a favorable track for us.  Today’s model runs now expect the low to track a little too far to our south. Unfortunately I agree with today’s model runs and think we’ll get less precip.

Timing… Spotty showers will start over the mountains early Friday morning and then become more widespread late Friday morning through Friday night. Saturday and Sunday showers will be isolated and precip amounts will be low.

Snow levels…

Friday through Saturday afternoon around 10,000ft

Saturday night through Sunday afternoon 8,500ft to 9,000ft

Sunday night 8,000ft to 8,500ft

Snow forecast…

Mountains above 10,000ft: 3-6”

Valley above 8,000ft: a dusting to 1”

Valley below 8,000ft: none to a dusting

Monday and next Tuesday afternoon… It will remain unsettled with mostly cloudy skies and spotty showers, mostly over the mountains. Precip amounts will be light.

Next Tuesday night through next Thursday… Another low-pressure system could move through. It’s too early to focus on details.

Temps…

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Thursday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

Friday and Saturday highs will be in near 50 to the high 50s. Friday night lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Saturday night lows will be near 20 to the high 20s.

Sunday, Monday, and next Tuesday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.

Winds…

Afternoon gusts through Thursday will be 10-15mph through Thursday.

Friday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Saturday through next Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph.

NBM precip to Sunday at 11pm shows 0.40” near Pagosa and 0.75” to 1” in our mountains.
NBM precip to Sunday at 11pm shows 0.40” near Pagosa and 0.75” to 1” in our mountains.
NBM snow to 18 Nov at 11pm shows 0.20” near Pagosa and 6-12” in our mountains. I expect the low to dip farther south and that our mountains will get less snow.
NBM snow to 18 Nov at 11pm shows 0.20” near Pagosa and 6-12” in our mountains. I expect the low to dip farther south and that our mountains will get less snow.

The 8-14 day period… The storm track will dip farther south, and a few low-pressure systems will move through the Four Corners region. The outcomes vary considerably between a couple of wimpy storms and a couple of decent ones. Let’s hope things line up for us!

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 25 Nov at 5am shows 1.66” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.86”. The storm track could stay active for most of this period.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 25 Nov at 5am shows 1.66” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.86”.
The storm track could stay active for most of this period. It’s great to see a wet pattern for much of the western US.
Euro ensemble 15-day snow for Wolf Creek shows 21”. Note that the vertical blue bars indicate between 1” of precip and 4” by the end of the period.  That’s a huge variance!  If we get the higher totals, Wolf Creek will be open by Thanksgiving! It’s great to see a wet pattern for much of the western US.
Euro ensemble 15-day snow for Wolf Creek shows 21”. Note that the vertical blue bars indicate between 1” of precip and 4” by the end of the period.  That’s a huge variance!  If we get the higher totals, Wolf Creek will be open by Thanksgiving!

The next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Ski & bow rack logo with an archer
Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors
Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

The Springs Resort logo
Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Categories

4 Responses

  1. Hoping mother nature treats us kindly this year and we get some good snow especially in the valley! Thanks for the work you guys do

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

© 2026 Pagosa Weather 

Website Design by : Brandon