Potential for precip in about two weeks…

The morning walks are chilly but often gorgeous. Tommy photo-bombed me again! – Pic taken 11/1/2025

Saturday – 1 Nov 2025 – 5:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 61, Low: 23, Peak Wind: 10mph

Friday: High: 57, Low: 24, Peak Wind: 7mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
54	71 / 1934	21	0 / 1929

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite Saturday afternoon – The ridge, jagged line blue line, will continue to give us lots of sun and dry weather. The yellow arrows indicate upper-level flow.*

There is nothing on radar in the Pagosa Springs area Saturday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Clocks “fall back” tonight. ***

*** Lots of sun and mostly dry for the next 12-14 days and then a more active pattern. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Saturday through next Saturday… Ridging will give us lots of sun and dry weather. Temps will be around 10 degrees above average Sunday through Wednesday and then around 5 degrees above average for the rest of the week.

Temps…

Saturday night lows will be in the low 20s to the low 30s.

Sunday through Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Thursday through next weekend highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Winds…

Afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph. Thursday and Friday are the exceptions with gusts around 20mph.

*NBM precip to 12 Nov at 11am shows nothing in our area and just a little for the northern Colorado mountains.*

The 8-14 day period… A persistent ridge over the desert Southwest will keep the storm track to our north. Towards the end of this period, the ridge could move over the eastern US and a more active trough could set up over the western US. It doesn’t look too impressive for us, but it is encouraging.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 16 Nov at 5am shows 0.40” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.33”. The storm track to stay to our north (black arrows) for most of this period and then hopefully shift south towards the end. — On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 16 Nov at 5am shows 0.40” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.33”. The storm track will stay to our north (black arrows) for most of this period and then hopefully shift south towards the end.

*Euro ensemble 15-day snow – This model shows 4.9” of snow for Wolf Creek over the next 15-days. This isn’t impressive but it is a little more encouraging.*

The next post will be on Monday. Keep an eye out for the monthly newsletter and the October Summary/November Outlook.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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