Sucks if you want snow but it’s great for getting outside…

Tommy at Hatcher Lake on a perfect fall day. – Pic taken 10/29/2025

Tommy at Hatcher Lake on a perfect fall day. – Pic taken 10/29/2025

Thursday – 30 Oct 2025 – 4:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 55, Low: 22, Peak Wind: 10mph

Wednesday: High: 59, Low: 22, Peak Wind: 16mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5669 / 1990226 / 1989

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Thursday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, is forcing the storm track to our north. The yellow arrows indicate upper-level flow.
Water vapor satellite Thursday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, is forcing the storm track to our north. The yellow arrows indicate upper-level flow.

There is nothing on radar in the Pagosa Springs area Thursday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun and mostly dry for the next two weeks. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Thursday through next Thursday… Ridging will give us lots of sun and dry weather. Temps will be around 5 degrees above average through Saturday and then around 10 degrees above average Sunday through next Thursday.

Temps…

Thursday through Saturday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to the low 30s.

Sunday through next Thursday highs will be low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds…

Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph. Friday and next Thursday are the exceptions with gusts around 20mph.

NBM precip to 10 Nov at 11am shows no significant precip for Colorado.
NBM precip to 10 Nov at 11am shows no significant precip for Colorado.

The 8-14 day period… A persistent ridge over the desert Southwest will keep the storm track to our north. The models hint at weak system 6-7 Nov. I expect most of the storm energy and moisture to stay to our north. We’ll have lots of sun and mostly dry weather for most of this period.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 14 Nov at 5am shows 0.09” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.12”. I expect the storm track to stay to our north (black arrows), and we’ll get very little precip during this period.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 14 Nov at 5am shows 0.09” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.12”.
I expect the storm track to stay to our north (black arrows), and we’ll get very little precip during this period.
Euro ensemble 15-day snow – This model shows 1.2” of snow for Wolf Creek over the next 15-days. Booo hisss!
Euro ensemble 15-day snow – This model shows 1.2” of snow for Wolf Creek over the next 15-days. Booo hisss!

The next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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