Enjoy the great fall weather!…

Hurricane Melissa is battering Jamaica today and will batter eastern Cuba tonight. Our thoughts and prayers are with everyone being impacted. – graphic from The Weather Channel

Tuesday – 28 Oct 2025 – 4:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 60, Low: 29, Peak Wind: 20mph

Monday: High: 59, Low: 28, Peak Wind: 28mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
59	73 / 1990	23	5 / 1955

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite Tuesday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, will keep us sunny and dry for the next 7-14 days. The yellow arrows indicate upper-level flow.*

There is nothing on radar in the Pagosa Springs area Tuesday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun and mostly dry for the next two weeks. ***

Forecast details…

Rest of Tuesday through next Tuesday… Ridging will give us lots of sun and dry weather. Temps will be near average through Saturday and then 5-10 degrees above average Sunday through next Tuesday.

Temps…

Tuesday through Saturday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to the low 30s. On clear nights, the cold spots will dip into the high teens.

Sunday through next Tuesday highs will be low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds…

Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph. Friday is the exception with gusts around 20mph.

*NBM precip to 8 Nov at 11am shows no significant precip for most of Colorado.*

The 8-14 day period… A persistent ridge over the desert Southwest will keep the storm track to our north. The GFS hints at a weak system 5-6 Nov, while the other forecast models keep the system to our north. I agree that the system will stay to our north. We’ll have lots of sun and mostly dry weather.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 12 Nov at 5am shows 0.07” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.11”. I expect the storm track to stay to our north, and we’ll get very little precip during this period.

*Euro ensemble 15-day snow – This model shows 1” of snow for Wolf Creek over the next 15-days. Booo hisss!*

The next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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