Boring weather for the next two weeks…

Driving conditions were sketchy across Wolf Creek Pass for a few hours Friday morning – CDOT web cam capture 10/24/2025 at 8:30am

Friday – 24 Oct 2025 – 4:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 65, Low: 27, Peak Wind: 12mph

Thursday: High: 56, Low: 34, Peak Wind: 20mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
60	76 / 1988	26	6 / 1955

Precipitation summary and river levels… A few scattered showers and thunderstorms moved over parts of Archuleta County yesterday and then another round of light rain fell this morning. I estimate that Wolf Creek got 3-4” of snow Friday morning,

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Friday morning ranged from 0.01” to 0.33”.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite loop Friday afternoon – Clouds and showers are rotating counter-clockwise around the low near Toas. The low will slowly move east and drag the clouds with it. — *Water vapor satellite loop Friday afternoon – Clouds and showers are rotating counter-clockwise around the low near Taos. The low will slowly move east and drag the clouds with it.*

*Radar at 3:30pm Friday – The low is spinning northwest of Taos and moving slowly east. Scattered showers are rotating counter-clockwise around the low.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun, mostly dry, and temps near average for the next two weeks. ***

Forecast details…

Saturday through next Friday… A trough will skirt well to our north Sunday and Monday, so we’ll have partly cloudy skies and gusty afternoon winds. Otherwise ridging will give us lots of sun, dry weather, and temps near average.

Temps…

Saturday through next Friday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to the low 30s. On clear nights, the cold spots will dip into the low 20s.

Winds…

Saturday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and next Friday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Sunday and Monday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

*Euro precip for this period shows none near Pagosa and less than 0.10” along The Divide in our mountains. This is from the trough moving northern CO Sunday night and Monday.*

The 8-14 day period… A persistent ridge over the desert Southwest will keep the storm track to our north. The ridge might weaken towards the end of this period and allow a little bit of moisture to move into the region, but I’m skeptical. I expect lots of sun and mostly dry weather.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 8 Nov at 6am shows 0.14” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 0.05”. I expect the storm track to stay to our north, and I every little precip during this period.

*Euro ensemble 15-day snow – This model shows 1.6” of snow for Wolf Creek over the next 15-days.*

The next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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