So far, it’s been a fantastic fall – pic taken 9/25/2025
Tuesday – 30 Sep 2025 – 4:30pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Sunday: High: 69, Low: 46, Minimum relative humidity: 39%, Peak Wind: 8mph
Monday: High: 67, Low: 38, Minimum relative humidity: 32%, Peak Wind: 24mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 70 | 85 / 1957 | 32 | 21 / 1985 |
Precipitation summary… We have had a little rain over the last few days. The rain today was a surprise!
Current satellite and radar…
There are more showers along the trough in UT. There won’t be much left of the trough when it moves through us later this evening.
Forecast highlights…
*** Wednesday through Friday afternoon will be nice with chilly mornings and pleasant afternoons. ***
*** Friday evening through Saturday evening there will be more clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. ***
*** Sunday through most of Monday will be nice with scattered clouds. ***
*** Late Monday through Wednesday another low-pressure system could move through. Forecast confidence is low. ***
Forecast details…
Rest of Tuesday… A weak trough will move through this evening and kick up a few spotty showers and a thunderstorm or two. Precip amounts will be low and spotty.
Wednesday, Thursday, and most of Friday… A ridge will be to our east and a trough will be approaching from the west. We’ll be in middle with not much going on. Expect scattered afternoon clouds and dry weather. Winds will pick up Friday afternoon.
Friday evening through Saturday evening… We’ll catch the tail-end of a trough as it passes to our north. There will be gustier winds, more clouds, and scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday through most of Monday… We will be between systems as the ridge holds to our east, and the next system starts forming over the Pacific NW.
Late Monday through next Wednesday… The next low-pressure system could move through. Typical for this time of year, the forecast models are all over the place, so I don’t trust them.
Temps…
Tuesday night lows will be in the *** low 30s *** to low 40s.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s. Cold spots will flirt with freezing temperatures.
Saturday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the *** LOW to high 30s ***.
Sunday through next Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the *** LOW to high 30s ***.
Winds… Wednesday and Thursday gusts each afternoon will be 15-20mph. Friday and Saturday afternoons gusts will be 25-30mph. Sunday, Monday, and next Tuesday each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
Other models for the same period: Euro: 1.53”, Euro ensemble: 1.41”, Euro AI: 1.25”, Euro AI ensemble: 1.04”, GFS: 2.79”, GFS ensemble: 0.77”, Canadian: 0.89”, Canadian ensemble: 0.83”.
When the models vary like this, I don’t trust them.
The 8-14 day period… The models continue to flip-flop wildly for the 8-14 day period. One model run will show multiple low-pressure systems impacting us and then the next model run shows them missing us.
The good news is that the jet stream has slipped south and is active. There is potential for the first half of October to be wet.
The models show potential for an active pattern.
IF the precip amount is in the ballpark and it’s warmer than expected, snow totals will be lower. IF it’s colder than expected, snow totals will be higher. IF we were in the middle of winter, this would be 2-3 feet of snow!
For now, my expectations are for less precip (less than 2.4”), but 4” of snow up at Wolf Creek is reasonable.
Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Thursday.
– Shawn
