Clouds started building over the mountains around noon today – Pic taken 9/6/2025
Saturday – 6 Sep 2025 – 2:30pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Thursday: High: 75, Low: 44, Minimum relative humidity: 23%, Peak Wind: 21mph
Friday: High: 69, Low: 50, Minimum relative humidity: 46%, Peak Wind: 32mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 77 | 98 / 1955 | 39 | 23 / 1910 |
Precipitation summary… Much of the county got rain over the last 2 days.
Fire and smoke…
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Fire Restrictions have been lifted for the San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County. ***
*** Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday evening. ***
*** Just a few spotty showers and thunderstorms Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons. Most of us will stay dry. ***
*** Potential soaker Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon. ***
*** SNOW is possible above timberline Thursday night and Friday. ***
*** If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday… There will be less moisture and instability. There’s just a slight chance for a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.
Wednesday through Friday… A strong low-pressure system will move through northern CA and then spin around the northern Great Basin before ejecting northeast into western MT.
The ingredients are trying to come together for a decent storm: vertically stacked southwest flow, orographic lift, moisture, and instability. The models are still fluctuating on timing and the amount of precip.
At this time, the best chance for precip is Wednesday afternoon into Friday afternoon. Most of the precip will come from occasional bands of showers and thunderstorms.
SNOW? The snow level could drop into the 12,000-12,500ft range late Thursday night through Friday afternoon. It will be heavy wet snow with temps near freezing so just an inch or two is possible on most of our peaks.
Temps…
Saturday night lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s. The cold spots will dip into the mid-30s.
Sunday through Wednesday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s.
Thursday, and Friday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts through Monday will be 15-20mph. Tuesday through Thursday each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
The 8-14 day period… The models are really flip-flopping for this period. We’re in the battleground between low pressure systems skirting to our north and the subtropical ridge trying to hang on to our south. It’s a typical transition season weather pattern. Stay tuned!
Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Monday.
– Shawn
