Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday evening…

Flying our kite as the sun sets – Pic taken 8/31/2025

Thursday – 4 Sep 2025 – 5:10pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 79, Low: 44, Minimum relative humidity: 23%, Peak Wind: 28mph

Wednesday: High: 82, Low: 45, Minimum relative humidity: 17%, Peak Wind: 23mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
78	90 / 1955	39	29 / 1973

Precipitation summary… Wednesday was mostly dry with just a few reports of 0.01” and 0.02”. Tuesday a few folks got a decent soaking. Those reports are below.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals reported Wednesday morning ranged from zero to 0.39”.*

Fire and smoke…

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Thursday afternoon – Archuleta County is circled in purple. It’s stable inside the red line and unstable outside of it. Subtropical moisture is streaming into southern AZ and southern NM. Most of the moisture will stay to our south.

*The forecast track for Lorena has changed significantly. Now Lorena is expected to move slowly north and dissipate. The moisture will stay to our south.*

*Radar at 4:48pm Thursday – Scattered showers are moving slowly towards the northeast and east-northeast. Shower activity is increasing as I type.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 2 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for Archuleta County and the Town of Pagosa***

*** Unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday evening. The best chance is each afternoon into each evening. ***

*** Fewer showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and then just a couple of spotty storms Monday through Wednesday. ***

*** If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Thursday through Wednesday…

Late Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night, moisture and instability will gradually increase. A few hit and miss showers and thunderstorms are possible into the night.

Friday and Saturday a surge of monsoon moisture will lead to more showers and thunderstorms. I expect most of the county to get 0.20” to 0.40”.

Sunday is a transition day as moisture and instability decrease. There will be less storm activity.

Monday and through Wednesday, feeble monsoon activity will return. There’s just a slight chance for a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.

Temps…

Thursday night lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Friday and Saturday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Sunday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts through Monday will be 15-20mph. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

*NBM precip to Wednesday evening shows 0.30” near Pagosa and up to 1.20” in our mountains. Most of this expected between now and Sunday evening.*

The 8-14 day period… Sometime between next Thursday and next Sunday a low-pressure system could move through the region and bring us a little precip. The forecast models are struggling with the track and intensity, so my forecast confidence is low.

The models are really flip-flopping the rest of the period. Right now I expect a high to build over the region resulting in weak monsoon activity with a few spotty showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Precip amounts will be low.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 19 Sep at 6am shows 1.83” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.94”. I don’t trust the models. I think they continue to over-forecast precip.

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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