Pagosa Weather AUGUST SUMMARY & September Outlook

Central Archuleta County has “severe drought” conditions and east and west Archuleta County have “extreme drought” conditions.

East and west Archuleta County have “extreme drought” conditions and central Archuleta County has “severe drought” conditions.

Wednesday – 3 Sep 2025 – 9am

August Summary…

The average high for Aug is 80 and the average low is 45. The record high of 97 occurred on 5 Aug 1940. The record low of 28 occurred on 30 Aug 1978. Aug precip averages 2.69″ and average snowfall is zero. August is our wettest month. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.32″ of precip and zero snow.

At Stevens Field the highest temp was 91 on 19 Aug and the lowest temp was 41 on 4 Aug. There were 12 days with winds at or over 30mph. The strongest wind was 47mph on 26 Jul.

How did we do?

August mean temperature anomalies across much of Archuleta County were near average 1 to 3 degrees above average.
August mean temperature anomalies across much of Archuleta County were near average 1 to 3 degrees above average.
August mean precip anomalies were 30-50% of average for most of Archuleta County.
August mean precip anomalies were 30-50% of average for most of Archuleta County.
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 0.66″ to 1.64″.  All 18 locations were below the average of 2.69″.
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 0.66″ to 1.64″. All 18 locations were below the average of 2.69″.
Total precip so far for 2025 is 8.47″ – 60% of the average of 14.14″ for this point of the year
Total precip so far for 2025 is 8.47″ – 60% of the average of 14.14″ for this point of the year

Drought and River Levels…

East and west Archuleta County have “extreme drought” conditions and central Archuleta County has “severe drought” conditions.
The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the western US is experiencing drought conditions.
East and west Archuleta County have “extreme drought” conditions and central Archuleta County has “severe drought” conditions.
The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the western US is experiencing drought conditions.
The entire month was well below the median flow. Even the surge from Monsoon storms on 26 and 27 Aug stayed below the median.
The entire month was well below the median flow. Even the surge from Monsoon storms on 26 and 27 Aug stayed below the median.

September Outlook…

The average high for Sep is 74 and the average low is 37. The record high of 98 occurred on 6 Sep 1955. The record low of 15 occurred on 27 Sep 1908. Aug precip averages 2.00″ and average snowfall is 0.20″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.26″ of precip and 4.1″ snow.

The CPC temp outlook for Sep on the left shows a 40-50% chance for above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right shows "equal chances" for average precip.
The CPC temp outlook for Sep on the left shows a 40-50% chance for above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right shows “equal chances” for average precip.
Euro ensemble precip on the top expects 2.00″ of precip for Aug and the GFS ensemble precip on the bottom  expects 2.68″.
The Euro expects the average of 2.00″ and the GFS expects more than average. Last month the Euro did much better than the GFS.
Euro ensemble precip on the top expects 2.00″ for Aug and the GFS ensemble precip on the bottom expects 2.68″.
The Euro expects the average of 2.00″ and the GFS expects more than average. Last month the Euro did much better than the GFS.

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…

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Welcome to meteorological fall! We’re also heading into the last month of monsoon season. The earth starts to tilt away from the sun so we see general cooling. With that the subtropical ridge that supports our monsoon flow weakens. However, the eastern Pacific waters are at their warmest and tropical storm activity picks up.

August did not verify well. The GFS was way off. The Euro was closer, but it also over-forecasted precip. For the first few days of September the Euro is keeping the ridge to our west, which gives us weak northwest flow. Towards the end of the week, the ridge weakens and moves just to our east as the remnants of a tropical storm advect into our area. It will give us a nice soaking.

The rest of the month we will be under weak southwest flow with weak monsoon activity. However, given how active the eastern pacific has been this season, we could see the remnants of another system impact our area. That would put us right at average precipitation for the month. However, our temperatures will continue to be above average.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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