The monsoon will return!…

Tommy admired this gorgeous Pagosa Country sunrise this morning – Pic taken 8/18/2025

Tommy admired this gorgeous Pagosa Country sunrise this morning – Pic taken 8/18/2025

Monday – 18 Aug 2025 – 3:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 80, Low: 49, Minimum relative humidity: 21%, Peak Wind: 26mph

Sunday: High: 85, Low: 44, Minimum relative humidity: 9%, Peak Wind: 26mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8097 / 19464530 / 1960

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Fire and smoke…

Stoner Mesa, just west of Rico, is the most active fire near us. It has burned 8,523 acres and is 0% contained.

Fire and smoke map on Monday afternoon – Thankfully fires across the desert southwest have not been as active and aren’t putting out much smoke. Air quality is good in the Pagosa Springs area and most of the Four Corners area.
Fire and smoke map on Monday afternoon – Thankfully fires across the desert southwest have not been as active and aren’t putting out much smoke. Air quality is good in the Pagosa Springs area and most of the Four Corners area.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 1:40pm to 2:40pm on Monday – The subtropical high is over southeast AZ. We are on the northern edge of monsoon moisture and instability. Over the next few days the high will slowly move north and bring more monsoon moisture into our region.
Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 1:40pm to 2:40pm on Monday – The subtropical high is over southeast AZ. We are on the northern edge of monsoon moisture and instability. Over the next few days the high will slowly move north and bring more monsoon moisture into our region.
Radar at 2:48pm Monday – There are a few weak showers along the east border of Archuleta County, but most of the activity is to our east and south.
Radar at 2:48pm Monday – There are a few weak showers along the east border of Archuleta County, but most of the activity is to our east and south.

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 2 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for Archuleta County and the Town of Pagosa***

*** Mostly dry with just a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm through Thursday. ***

*** The monsoon will return starting Friday! ***

*** If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Monday through next Monday… Moisture and instability will be low through Thursday. We’ll be mostly dry with just a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm each afternoon.

Starting Friday until around next Friday (22-29 Aug) the monsoon will return.

Precipitable water, a measure of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, and Cape, a measure of instability, will both be high – as they should be this time of year!  Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and in the evenings. These storms can produce brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Temps…

Monday through Thursday highs will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Friday and Saturday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Sunday and Monday highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

Euro forecast model precip to next Monday evening shows 0.64” near Pagosa and up to 1.50” in our mountains. Most of this is expected after Thursday.
Euro forecast model precip to next Monday evening shows 0.64” near Pagosa and up to 1.50” in our mountains. Most of this is expected after Thursday.

The 8-14 day period… The monsoon will be active the first part of this period and then taper off towards the end.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 2 Sep at 6am shows 1.58” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 2.08”. Precip amounts are trending up. Precip totals will vary considerably.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 2 Sep at 6am shows 1.58” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 2.08”. Precip amounts are trending up. Precip totals will vary considerably.
The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both expect above average precip for us. This is encouraging!
The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both expect above average precip for us. This is encouraging!

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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