Two more warm, mostly dry days and then moisture moves in…

A gorgeous Pagosa Country sunrise – Pic taken 8/18/2025

A gorgeous Pagosa Country sunrise – Pic taken 8/18/2025

Wednesday – 20 Aug 2025 – 2:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Monday: High: 88, Low: 48, Minimum relative humidity: 9%, Peak Wind: 29mph

Tuesday: High: *91*, Low: 50, Minimum relative humidity: 12%, Peak Wind: 22mph

*One degree short of the record of 92 that occurred in 1986*

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19454530 / 1960

Precipitation summary… Most of the county got no precip, but a few raindrops fell on a couple of spots last night.

Fire and smoke…

Stoner Mesa, just west of Rico, is the most active fire near us. It has burned 9,406 acres and is 10% contained.

Fire and smoke map on Wednesday afternoon – Thankfully fires across the desert southwest have not been as active and aren’t putting out much smoke. Air quality is good in the Pagosa Springs area and most of the Four Corners area.
Fire and smoke map on Wednesday afternoon – Thankfully fires across the desert southwest have not been as active and aren’t putting out much smoke. Air quality is good in the Pagosa Springs area and most of the Four Corners area.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 12:50pm to 1:50pm on Wednesday – The high is centered over the Four Corners. That puts us on the more stable east side of the high. Moisture and instability will increase starting Friday.
Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 12:50pm to 1:50pm on Wednesday – The high is centered over the Four Corners. That puts us on the more stable east side of the high. Moisture and instability will increase starting Friday.
Radar at 2:02pm Wednesday – Showers and thunderstorms are just starting to pop across the region now. They are circulating clockwise, blue arrows, around the high. This will be much more active later this afternoon and into the evening. Pagosa Springs is too close to the high for much action.
Radar at 2:02pm Wednesday – Showers and thunderstorms are just starting to pop across the region now. They are circulating clockwise around the high (blue arrows). This will be much more active later this afternoon and into the evening. Pagosa Springs is too close to the high for much action.

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 2 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for Archuleta County and the Town of Pagosa***

*** Mostly dry and warm with just a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm through Thursday. ***

*** Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms this Friday to next Friday! ***

*** If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Monday through next Monday… Moisture and instability will be low through Thursday. We’ll be warm and mostly dry with just a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm each afternoon.

Starting Friday until around next Friday (22-29 Aug) the monsoon will return.

Precipitable water, a measure of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, and Cape, a measure of instability, will both be high – as they should be this time of year!  Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and into each evening. These storms can produce brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Temps…

Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s. *** Temps will flirt record highs today and tomorrow. The record high for both days is 90, which occurred in 1945 and 1910. ***

Friday and Saturday highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Sunday highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Monday through next Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

NBM precip to next Friday evening shows 1.69” near Pagosa and up to 2.75” in our mountains. Precip trends have gone with nearly every forecast model expecting over 1” of rain during this period.
NBM precip to next Friday evening shows 1.69” near Pagosa and up to 2.75” in our mountains. Precip trends have gone up with nearly every forecast model expecting over 1” of rain during this period.

The 8-14 day period… The monsoon will be active the first part of this period and then taper off the second half.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 4 Sep at 6am shows 2.18” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 2.25”. Precip amounts are trending up. Precip totals will vary considerably.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 4 Sep at 6am shows 2.18” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 2.25”. Precip amounts are trending up. Precip totals will vary considerably.
The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both expect above average precip for us. This is encouraging!
The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both expect above average precip for us. This is encouraging!

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

    1. Tyler, It is a complicated pattern. They say we’re going into a LaNina pattern but it has been behaving like an El Nino pattern all winter. The polar front jet has remained active and has dipped into lower 48 all summer. I also like to look at all the other oscillation. I’ll have a winter forecsat out in October. – Arleen

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