Mostly dry, sunny, and warm through Thursday…

The clouds indicate moisture, but the atmosphere isn’t unstable enough for of us to get a soaking. – Pic taken 8/16/2025

Saturday – 16 Aug 2025 – 1:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 87, Low: 52, Minimum relative humidity: 11%, Peak Wind: 22mph

Friday: High: 83, Low: 49, Minimum relative humidity: 18%, Peak Wind: 36mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
80	89 / 1959	44	32 / 1913

Precipitation summary… Some folks got enough rain for a few good puddles yesterday, while many of us hardly got anything.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Saturday morning ranged from zero to 0.17”.*

Fire and smoke…

The Blue Ridge Fire popped up just north of Bayfield shortly before 2pm yesterday and was quickly stopped at 25 acres. A small portion of the large Forest Lakes neighborhood had to evacuate while much of the rest was put in pre-evacuation status. Thanks to another very quick response from various agencies and resources, many homes were potentially saved!

Stoner Mesa, just west of Rico, is the most active fire near us. It has burned 7,390 acres and is 0% contained.

Fire and smoke map on Saturday afternoon – Either the smoke analysis is missing, or the fires haven’t put out much smoke in the last 24 hours. Air quality is in the green for much of the desert southwest which indicates smoke is just light across much of the region.

Forecast discussion…

*Water vapor satellite around noon Saturday – The monsoon plume, outlined in green, is being pushed to our east. We’re stuck with mostly dry, stable air through Thursday.*

*Radar at 12:38pm Saturday – There are no showers or thunderstorms in our area. Showers across the region are moving towards the northeast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 2 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for Archuleta County and the Town of Pagosa***

*** Mostly dry with a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm through Thursday. A better chance Friday through the next Friday (22-29 Aug). ***

*** If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Saturday through next Saturday… Moisture and instability will be low through Thursday. We’ll be mostly dry with just a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm each afternoon.

The forecast models are telling me that we could get decent precip Friday to the next Friday (22-29 Aug). Based on how this summer has gone, I’ll believe it when I see it!

Temps…

Saturday and Sunday highs will be near 80 to the high 80s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Monday through Thursday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Friday and next Saturday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

*NBM precip to next Saturday evening shows 0.25” near Pagosa and up to 0.75” in our mountains. Most of this is expected Friday and next Saturday.*

The 8-14 day period… A more active monsoon pattern will try to set up – come on monsoon! Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. Precip amounts will vary considerably.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 31 Aug at 6am shows 1.12” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.31”. Most of this is expected 22-29 Aug. Precip amounts will vary considerably.

*The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 40-50% chance for above average precip for us. This is encouraging!*

A HUGE THANKS to the love my life for giving me a good break!

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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