Sturgeon Full Moon has put on a nice display for a few nights last week. Photo Credit to Dena Laterza! Pic taken 8/8/2025
Tuesday – 12 Aug 2025 – 9:30am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on yesterday (Monday) was 84. The low this morning (Tuesday) it was 47.
The minimum relative humidity Monday afternoon 9% with a dew-point of 18. This indicates it is still very dry. Remember, we want to see dew-points in upper 40s for good monsoon showers.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on yesterday (Monday) was 26mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 81 | 89/ 1972 | 47 | 33 / 1950 |
Precipitation summary… There was not any reports of precipitation in the last few days. There were just a few weak rainshowers over the mountains yesterday.
Fire and smoke…
The Oak Fire is at 75 acres (better mapping yesterday) and 14% contained. Sign up for Archuleta County Nixle system or download Watch Duty app or the Archuleta County Sheriff’s office for the latest updates.
The Middle Mesa Fire burning east of Navajo Lake just south of the CO/NM border is 5,031 acres and 66% contained.
The Stoner Mesa Fire west of Rico in Dolores county is up to 6,205 acres and 0% contained.
The Dragon Bravo Fire that is in Arizona is at 143,974 acres and 44% contained.
Forecast discussion…
Satellite
Satellite image: Valid Time August 12th, 8:20am.
The area of low pressure and the frontal system have sunk to our south and an area of high pressure is moving into our area. We have some monsoonal moisture wrapping up into the area of low pressure. We’ll see weak flow into our area today.
Radar
There is nothing showing up on radar as of 9:00am.
Forecast highlights…
*** NOTE: Stage 2 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest!!!***
*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for Archuleta County and the town of Pagosa***
*** Concerned about fire danger through the week with lots of sun, warm, dry, and breezy afternoon winds and isolated thunderstorm activity. ***
*** If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***
Tuesday through Monday
Low level smoke form the Stoner Mesa Fire should move out today as winds switch to the south.
The ridge will try to rebuild over the next few days. Moisture will slowly advect into area with chance of precip increasing each day and chance of gusty winds decreasing – they’ll be more breezy. We’ll be clear partly cloudy in the morning to Mostly Cloudy as we should see increasing clouds each afternoon.
There is a slight chance on for an isolated shower or thunderstorm every day. Best chances are on Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, consider yourself lucky if you get enough rain to wet the ground. Unfortunately, isolated thunderstorms also means lightning without higher relative humidities and rain. So the chances of wildfire outbreaks increases.
Temps: Highs will be from low-80s to upper 80s. Saturday will be the coolest day of the week with upper 70s to low 80s. Lows will be mid-40s.
Winds: Winds in the morning will be variable at less than 5mph. In the mid mornings winds will switch to coming out of the southwest blowing towards the northeast at 8 to 12 mph with afternoon gusts to 20mph. As always, stronger variable, isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
The 8-14 day period… A weak monsoon pattern with weak moisture and weak instability will persist. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. Precip amounts will vary considerably. There is the potential for an uptick next week.
The Euro model shows .69″ for Pagosa and up to 2.5″ for the mountains over the next two weeks.
The GFS model shows 1.25″ for Pagosa and up to 2″ for the mountains over the next two weeks.
We need a good, deep tropical moisture storm to give the southwest and the firefighters some relief.
Unless something interesting pops up, my next post will be on Thursday.
– Arleen
One Response
Thank you for covering the fires, air quality and wind movement that affects us all. Very helpful!