Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms all week…

Smoky sunrise – Pic taken 7/11/2025

Saturday – 12 Jul 2025 – 2:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Thursday was 89, and on Friday it was 87. The low this morning was 47. The cold spots were in the high 30s.

The minimum relative humidity Thursday afternoon was 9% and Friday afternoon it was 7%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Thursday was 37mph and on Friday it was 35mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
84	96 / 1940	45	29 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

GeoColor satellite loop roughly 1-2pm Saturday – Slow-moving showers with moderate to heavy rain have developed on the other side of The Divide, especially along the lower Conejos River area. Smoke is clearly visible from the Deer Creek Fire along the UT/CO state line.

Radar at 1:56pm Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms have popped along the other side of The Divide and are moving slowly towards the south-southeast. “Slow movers” are capable of dropping a bunch of rain over small areas.

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of the San Juan National Forest. ***

*** An Air Quality Alert is in effect until 9am Sunday. This will likely be issued each day until fires in the Four Corner region produce less smoke. ***

*** Weak monsoon activity starts tomorrow and will gradually increase through the week. ***

*** Fire danger will remain high until our forests get a good soaking. The first few thunderstorms could spark lightning fires. If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

***I highlighted the 5 most active fires producing the most smoke. The only wind directions we won’t get smoke is from the northeast and east. Archuleta County is circled in black.***

Rest of Saturday through next Saturday… A weak monsoon plume is headed our way. The atmosphere will be a little less stable, and moisture will gradually increase.

Today the east side of Archuleta County and Chama areas have the best chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Starting tomorrow and through the rest of the week, scattered afternoon and evening showers are possible across the whole county. Precip amounts will vary considerably.

Temps… Saturday and Sunday highs will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s. For the rest of this period highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-25mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

NBM precip to next Saturday evening shows 0.63” in the Pagosa area and up to1.60” in our mountains. Each day some locations will be dry while others could get a decent soaking. Precip amounts will vary considerably. — *NBM precip to next Saturday evening shows 0.63” in the Pagosa area and up to1.60” in our mountains.*
**Each day some locations will be dry while others could get a decent soaking. Precip amounts will vary considerably.**

The 8-14 day period… Weak monsoon activity will persist. We’ll see scattered showers and thunderstorms most afternoons.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 27 Jul at 6am shows 1.29” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 2.21”. The trend is up for both models. It’s still a big difference. Go GFS!

*The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows “near normal” precip for us.*

The next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

One Response

Jerome Smith says:

July 14, 2025 at 1:52 pm

Good on ya!
Best of military training put to continued excellent community service.
Go Vets.

Jerry Smith

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