Hit and miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms…

The flowers have been beautiful in the high country – Pic taken 7/11/2025

Monday – 14 Jul 2025 – 3:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Saturday was 87, and on Sunday it was 85. The low this morning was 48. The cold spots were in the low 40s.

The minimum relative humidity Saturday afternoon was 12% and Sunday afternoon it was 14%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Saturday was 32mph and on Sunday it was 31mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	93 / 1934	45	30 / 1948

Precipitation summary… There have been scattered showers and thunderstorms the last 2 afternoons. Rain amounts have been minimal for much of the county.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Monday morning range from zero to 0.16”*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Sunday morning range from zero to 0.11”*

Fires and smoke…

There has been lots of lightning. 10 small fires have been reported in Archuleta, Hinsdale, and La Plata Counties. Thankfully most of them were controlled quickly.

Monday morning the Little Devil Fire was reported at 1 acre about 4 miles south of Devil Mountain.

*The smoke map around 2pm Monday shows light smoke over our area.*

*The Watch Duty fire map around 2pm Monday shows the Little Devil Fire south of Devil Mountain. The other fires have been contained.*

Forecast discussion…

*Visual satellite and lightning loop roughly 2:15pm to 3:15pm Monday – Thunderstorms developed mostly along the other side of The Divide and are moving into parts of Archuleta County as I type.*

*Radar at 3:26pm Monday – It’s getting active over the eastern part of Archuleta County. Storms are moving slowly towards the south.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Starting tomorrow, 14 Jul, Stage 1 Fire Restrictions will be in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Weak monsoon activity will peak Thursday through Saturday and then taper off next week. ***

*** Fire danger will remain high until our forests get a good soaking. The first few thunderstorms could spark lightning fires. If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Monday through next Monday… The weak monsoon plume will wobble back and forth across the region. Moisture and instability will peak Thursday through Saturday and then taper off next week.

Temps… Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s. For the rest of this period highs will be near 80 to near 90 and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

NBM precip to next Monday evening shows 0.29” in the Pagosa area and up to1” in our mountains. The precip trend is for less. Precip amounts will vary considerably. — *NBM precip to next Monday evening shows 0.29” in the Pagosa area and up to 1” in our mountains. The precip trend is for less. Precip amounts will vary considerably.*

The 8-14 day period… Weak monsoon activity will persist. We’ll see hit and miss showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. Precip amounts will vary considerably.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 29 Jul at 6am shows 1.10” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.35”. The trend has switched to less press – ugh. — *On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 29 Jul at 6am shows 1.10” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.35”. The trend has switched to less precip – ugh.*

*The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 33-40% chance for below average precip for us. Unfortunately, I agree.*

The next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

One Response

Rick Holter says:

July 14, 2025 at 5:07 pm

I’m curious: GFS and Euro models have been just plain bad for most of this year — often promising 6-10 days out, then when the day actually hits, all we are is dust in the wind. (Shoutout to my wife, the Kansan.) Shawn and Arleen, any theories on why?

My (admittedly uneducated) theory: Climate change has made models a little superfluous. What would’ve played out 20-30 years ago just doesn’t have a lot of relevance today. Models are built on history that just doesn’t play out the same way now.

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