A little monsoon moisture is headed our way…

Stage 1 fire restrictions are in effect for the San Juan National Forest – Pic taken 7/3/2025

Stage 1 fire restrictions are in effect for the San Juan National Forest – Pic taken 7/3/2025

Thursday – 10 Jul 2025 – 6:30pm

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Tuesday was 86, and on Wednesday it was 91. The low this morning was 53. The cold spots were in the mid-40s.

The minimum relative humidity Tuesday afternoon was 14% and Wednesday afternoon it was 9%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Tuesday was 25mph and on Wednesday it was 33mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8496 / 19894430 / 1955

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip reported this morning. Yesterday morning up to 0.05” was reported in the Hatcher Lake area while most folks got nothing.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Thursday evening – We have dry flow out of the west through Friday and then the weak moisture plume will move back into our area over the weekend.
Water vapor satellite Thursday evening – We have dry flow out of the west through Friday and then the weak moisture plume will move back into our area over the weekend.
Radar at 5:54pm Thursday – There are a couple of weak showers over Mineral County, but most of the activity is across eastern CO and eastern NM.
Radar at 5:54pm Thursday – There are a couple of weak showers over Mineral County, but most of the activity is across eastern CO and eastern NM.

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of the San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Lots of sun, warm, and mostly dry through Friday. ***

*** Monsoon activity will ramp up this weekend. ***

*** Fire danger will remain high through the weekend and then we might get some relief next week. ***

Rest of Thursday through Friday… Dry, mostly stable air will stick with us. There’s a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. Be happy if you get a few raindrops!

Saturday through next Thursday… A weak monsoon plume is headed our way. The atmosphere will be a little less stable, and moisture will gradually increase. There will be scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Precip amounts will vary considerably.

Temps… Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s. For the rest of this period highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Friday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. For the rest of this period, afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

WPC precip to next Thursday evening shows 0.41” in the Pagosa area and up to1.30” in our mountains. Precip amounts will vary considerably.
WPC precip to next Thursday evening shows 0.41” in the Pagosa area and up to1.30” in our mountains. Precip amounts will vary considerably.

The 8-14 day period… Weak monsoon activity will persist. We’ll see scattered showers and thunderstorms most afternoons, but I don’t see any big soakings on the horizon.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 25 Jul at 6am shows 0.88” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.61”. That’s a big difference. Go GFS!
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 25 Jul at 6am shows 0.88” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.61”. That’s a big difference. Go GFS!
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 33-40% chance for above average precip for us.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 33-40% chance for above average precip for us.

The next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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