Spotty showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon – Dry through the weekend…

0.29” in our rain gauge this morning! – pic taken 6/24/2025

Tuesday – 24 Jun 2025 – 4:10pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Sunday was 77, and on Monday it was 80. The low this morning was 55. The cold spots dipped into the mid-40s.

The minimum relative humidity Sunday afternoon was 11% and Monday afternoon it was 12%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Sunday was 35mph and on Monday it was 26mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	92 / 1990	38	26 / 1951

Precipitation summary… A few folks reported a few raindrops last night. After this morning’s reports, scattered showers moved through parts of the county. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s reports.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop from 2:41pm to 3:36pm Tuesday – We are on the northwest edge of a monsoon moisture plume. The plume will be pushed to our east tomorrow by the weak trough currently over NV and southern CA.

*Radar at 3:48pm Tuesday – A batch of weakening showers is moving into southern Archuleta County. The eastern part of the county could get decent rain.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon there will be hit and miss showers and thunderstorms. ***

*** Thursday through the weekend will be sunny and dry. ***

*** The monsoon will try to kick into the gear next week! ***

Rest of Tuesday through Wednesday… We are on the northwest edge of a surge of monsoon moisture. Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night is our best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more spotty.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the low 40s to low 40s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the high 30s to high 40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. Isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

*NBM precip to Wednesday evening shows 0.17” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts will vary considerably between just a few raindrops to around 0.25”.*

Thursday through the weekend… Monsoon moisture will be cut-off and we’ll be stable. Other than scattered afternoon clouds, there will be lots of sun and seasonal temps. Thankfully winds won’t be bad too.

Temps… Thursday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be near 40 to near 50. For the rest of this period, highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

The 8-14 day period… The monsoon will kick into gear. Each afternoon and evening there’s a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 9 Jul at 6am shows 1.03” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.89”. That’s a big difference. Go GFS! This is all spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.

*The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 40-50% chance for above average precip.*

The next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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