Rain chances and rain amounts decreasing – ugh…

Tommy looks down on Lake San Cristobal near Lake City – pic taken 6/19/2025

Tommy looks down on Lake San Cristobal near Lake City – pic taken 6/19/2025

Sunday – 22 Jun 2025 – 5:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Friday was 86, and on Saturday it was 82. The low this morning was 46. The cold spots dipped into the mid-30s.

The minimum relative humidity Friday afternoon was 8% and Saturday afternoon it was 8%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Friday was 38mph and on Saturday it was 36mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8193 / 19543723 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – Dry, southwest flow is pushing a weak moisture plume to the east. The next moisture surge will start moving north through NM tomorrow.
Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – Dry, southwest flow is pushing a weak moisture plume to the east. The next moisture surge will start moving north through NM tomorrow.

There is nothing on radar in our area Sunday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** A Red Flag Warning for critical fire conditions is out until 9pm tonight. ***

*** Monday evening into Wednesday evening there’s a chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. ***

*** Thursday and Friday will be sunny and dry. ***

*** Next weekend isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. ***

Monday through Wednesday… We are going to catch the northwest edge of a surge of monsoon moisture. There’s a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms each day. The best chance is Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be near 40 to near 50.

Winds… Monday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. Isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NBM precip to late next Wednesday evening shows 0.13” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts will vary considerably between just a few raindrops to around 0.25”. Precip amounts are trending down for us – boooo hissss.
NBM precip to late next Wednesday evening shows 0.13” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts will vary considerably between just a few raindrops to around 0.25”. Precip amounts are trending down for us – boooo hissss.

Thursday through next weekend… Thursday and Friday will be mostly sunny and dry.

Next weekend another surge of monsoon moisture and instability will lead to a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. I think most of us will stay dry.

Temps… Thursday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be near 40 to near 50. For the rest of this period, highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Next weekend, isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

The 8-14 day period… We’ll be in the “sputter” phase of the monsoon where it’s trying to set up and is weak. There will be hit and miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 7 Jul at 6am shows 0.81” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.71”. That’s a big difference. Go GFS! This is all spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 7 Jul at 6am shows 0.81” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.71”. That’s a big difference. Go GFS! This is all spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.

The next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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