Fire danger will remain high through the weekend…

Pretty flowers in a sunset glow at La Jara Reservoir, Colorado – pic taken 6/13/2025

Pretty flowers in a sunset glow at La Jara Reservoir, Colorado – pic taken 6/13/2025

Friday – 20 Jun 2025 – 6:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Wednesday was 85, and on Thursday it was 87. The low this morning was 51. The cold spots dipped into the high 30s.

The minimum relative humidity Wednesday afternoon was 8% and Thursday afternoon it was 8%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Wednesday was 18mph and on Thursday it was 26mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8092 / 19893728 / 1973

Precipitation summary… Everybody reported zero precip in the last 2 days except Robyn near Chromo. She was the rain lottery winner with 0.03”. It’s not much, but most of us would be happy with it!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Friday afternoon – Tropical moisture is just starting to nose its way into central NM. The dry flow out of the southwest will keep us on the western edge of the moisture.
Water vapor satellite Friday afternoon – Tropical moisture is just starting to nose its way into central NM. The dry flow out of the southwest will keep us on the western edge of the moisture.
Radar around 4pm Friday – You have to look really hard to few weak showers in the southeast corner of Archuleta County and the Chama area. Showers and thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast.
Radar around 4pm Friday – You have to look really hard to see a few weak showers in the southeast corner of Archuleta County and the Chama area. Showers and thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast.

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger is high and will remain high through the weekend. ***

*** A Red Flag Warning for critical fire conditions is out until midnight tonight. ***

*** There is currently a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday. I’m confident that this will be upgraded to another Red Flag Warning. ***

*** Late Monday afternoon into Wednesday evening there’s a chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. ***

Rest of Saturday through Sunday…. A low pressure will move through the Pacific NW region and push dry, warm, stable, gusty, southwest flow into our area.

Temps… Friday night lows will be near 40 to near 50. Saturday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s. Sunday highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 30-35mph.

Monday through next Wednesday… We are going to catch the western edge of a surge of monsoon moisture. There’s a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. The best chance is late each afternoon and into the evening.

Temps… Monday and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be near 40 to near 50. Tuesday highs will be in the low 70s to low 80s and lows will be near 40 to near 50.

Winds… Monday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. Isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NBM precip to late next Wednesday evening shows 0.45” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts will vary considerably between just a few raindrops to around 0.50”. Note the higher precip amounts to our south and southeast. We’re just going to catch the northwest edge of this surge of monsoon moisture.
NBM precip to late next Wednesday evening shows 0.45” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts will vary considerably between just a few raindrops to around 0.50”. Note the higher precip amounts to our south and southeast. We’re just going to catch the northwest edge of this surge of monsoon moisture.

Thursday through next weekend… Thursday will be mostly sunny and dry.

Next Friday through next weekend there will be a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. I think most of us will stay dry.

Temps… Thursday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be near 40 to near 50. For the rest of this period, highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

The 8-14 day period… We’ll be in the “sputter” phase of the monsoon where it’s trying to set up and is weak. There will be hit and miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 5 Jul at 6am shows 0.79” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.57”. This is all spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 5 Jul at 6am shows 0.79” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.57”. This is all spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.

The next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

One Response

  1. paintbrushes already ?? Seems a bit earlier.

    I miss you guys. I follow every post. Keep up the great work. I’ll throw a donation your way from 2,400 miles east soon.

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