Warm, dry, and breezy with high fire danger through the weekend…

Woke up to a pretty sunrise – pic taken by Arleen on 6/17/2025

Tuesday – 17 Jun 2025 – 4:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Sunday was 88, and on Monday it was 87. The low this morning was 41. The cold spots were near freezing.

The minimum relative humidity Monday afternoon was 5% and Sunday afternoon it was 5%.

Temperature swings between daily highs and daily lows have been 45-50 degrees. This is also an indication of how dry it is.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Sunday was 29mph and on Monday it was 33mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	87 / 1986	36	24 / 1957

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Tuesday afternoon – The clouds this morning were from a weak trough moving through. We’ll have dry upper-level flow out of the northwest and west and Wednesday and Thursday. Friday the ridge will move to our east and dry, southwest flow will increase over the weekend. — Water vapor satellite Tuesday afternoon – The clouds this morning were from a weak trough moving through. We’ll have dry upper-level flow out of the northwest and west Wednesday and Thursday. Friday the ridge will move to our east and dry, southwest flow will increase over the weekend.

There is nothing on radar in our area Tuesday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Red Flag Warning for critical fire conditions in effect until 8pm Tuesday. ***

*** Warm, dry, and breezy weather through Sunday. Fire danger will remain high. ***

*** Monday through next Wednesday there’s a chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Sunday…. Dry, stable, warm air will continue to circulate around a high pressure in the region.

The high will shift to our east on Friday causing afternoon winds to be gustier through the weekend. *** I expect Red Flag conditions Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. ***

Temps… Wednesday through Saturday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s. Sunday highs will be near 80 to near 90 and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s.

Winds… Afternoon winds Wednesday and Thursday will be around 20mph. Friday and Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 30mph. Saturday afternoon gusts will be 30-35mph.

Monday through next Wednesday… We are going to catch the western edge of a surge of monsoon moisture. There’s a chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be near 40 to near 50.

Winds… Monday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. Isolated higher gusts are possible near a spotty shower or thunderstorm.

NBM precip to late next Wednesday evening shows 0.36” in the Pagosa area. Note the higher precip amounts to our south and southeast. We’re just going to catch the western edge of this surge of monsoon moisture.

The 8-14 day period… We’ll be in the “sputter” phase of the monsoon where it’s trying to set up and is weak. There will be hit and miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.

*The Euro ensemble precip to 2 Jul at 6am shows 0.70” in the Pagosa area. This is all spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram for Pagosa for the next 15 days. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. It indicates dry weather through Sunday or Monday. There’s a chance for scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. After 27 June there’s just a weak chance for spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

This is Euro ensemble capes meteogram for Pagosa for the next 15 days. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. Cape is a measure of instability. This time of year, Capes over 200 indicate a potential for convective showers and thunderstorms. It’s stable through Sunday and maybe Monday. Starting next Tuesday Capes are 200-400 indicating enough instability for convective showers and thunderstorms.

This is Euro ensemble precipitable water meteogram for Pagosa for the next 15 days. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. Cape is a measure of instability. Precipitable water is the amount of potential moisture available for precip. This time of year it needs to be over 0.50” to give me hope for rain. There’s a nice little surge above 0.60”. — This is Euro ensemble precipitable water meteogram for Pagosa for the next 15 days. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. Cape is a measure of instability. Precipitable water is the amount of potential moisture available for precip. This time of year it needs to be over 0.50” to give me hope for rain. There’s a nice little surge above 0.60” next Tuesday and Wednesday and then it hangs out around 0.50″ for the rest of the period.

*** These three meteograms are a few of my primary forecast products for the monsoon season. I look at these and similar products twice a day every day to see if the ingredients are expected for convective showers and thunderstorms. ***

The next post will be on Thursday or Friday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon