Sunny and dry through the weekend – monsoon next week?…

Old-man-of-the-mountain flowers are always a treat in the high country – pic taken 6/20/2025

Old-man-of-the-mountain flowers are always a treat in the high country – pic taken 6/20/2025

Thursday – 26 Jun 2025 – 9:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Tuesday was 75, and on Wednesday it was missing. The low this morning was 41. The cold spots were near freezing.

The minimum relative humidity Tuesday afternoon was 33% and Wednesday afternoon it was missing.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Tuesday was 29mph and on Wednesday it was missing.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19903822 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There was no precip reported in the last 24 hours. Some areas did pretty good on Tuesday.

26 Jun 2025 pm CoCoRaHS 24hr precip
CoCoRaHS reports from Tuesday ranged from a trace to 0.58”. Linda in Log Park reported 1.12”!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Thursday morning – Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough moving through ID has pushed the monsoon plume to our east. The dry high over the eastern Pacific will give us lots of sun through the weekend.
Water vapor satellite Thursday morning – Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough moving through ID has pushed the monsoon plume to our east. The dry high over the eastern Pacific will give us lots of sun through the weekend.

There is nothing on radar in our area Thursday morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Thursday through the weekend will be sunny and dry. ***

*** The monsoon will kick into the gear next week! ***

Rest of Thursday through the weekend… Monsoon moisture will be cut-off and we’ll be stable.  Other than scattered afternoon clouds, there will be lots of sun and seasonal temps. Thankfully the winds won’t be bad too.

Temps… Thursday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s. For the rest of this period, highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

NBM precip to late Sunday evening shows nothing for southwest Colorado.
NBM precip to late Sunday evening shows nothing for southwest Colorado.

Monday through Friday… Typical monsoon weather… We’ll wake up to bright sun and then clouds will start to build over the mountains in the late mornings.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and into the evening.  And then we are usually treated to a pretty sunset, and sometimes a brilliant rainbow.  I love our monsoon season!

A note about monsoon storms… Rain is not guaranteed on you every day.  Convective showers are always spotty and usually short-lived. Subtropical monsoon moisture can result in very heavy downpours that only last 15-30 minutes. I half-jokingly say zero to 1” of precip is possible each day. “If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes, or drive a few miles.”

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and low will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be around 15mph, but isolated 30-40mph gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NBM precip to next Friday evening shows 0.16” near Pagosa. Precip will vary considerably.
NBM precip to next Friday evening shows 0.16” near Pagosa. Precip will vary considerably.

The 8-14 day period… The monsoon will stick with us, so we’ll see scattered showers and thunderstorms most afternoons.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 10 Jul at 6pm shows 1.00” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.53”. That’s a big difference. Go GFS! This is all spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably. A single slow-moving cell can drop 1” of rain in a short period over a small area. We’re playing the rain lottery!
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 10 Jul at 6pm shows 1.00” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.53”.

This is all spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably. A single slow-moving cell can drop 1” of rain in a short period over a small area. We’re playing the rain lottery!
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 50-60% chance for above average precip.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook shows a 50-60% chance for above average precip.

The next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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