Chance for precip is going up…

Love these walks in the Utah “desert”!

Monday – 28 Apr 2025 – 7:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Saturday was 68, and on Sunday it was 61. The low this morning was 23. The cold spots dipped into the mid-teens.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Saturday was 35mph and on Sunday it was 31mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
61	76 / 1992	26	14 / 1991

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop Monday evening – A cut-off low is spinning over southwest UT and moving slowly south. It will be over central AZ tomorrow afternoon and will help kick up a few afternoon showers and an isolated thunderstorm in our area. — *Water vapor satellite loop Monday evening –* A cut-off low is spinning over southwest UT and moving slowly south. It will be over central AZ tomorrow afternoon and will help kick up a few afternoon showers and an isolated thunderstorm in our area.

There is nothing on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** Spotty afternoon showers starting Tuesday ***

Monday night… We’ll have scattered clouds and chilly temps.

Temps… Monday night lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.

Tuesday through Monday… The low over southeast UT will slide to our south Tuesday night. Tuesday afternoon will be unstable with spotty showers and a chance for an isolated thunderstorm. Precip will be spotty and amounts will be less than 0.05”.

Wednesday afternoon will see even fewer showers, mostly over the mountains.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are the most unstable days with the most moisture giving us our best chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lucky spots could get up to 0.25” of rain.

By Monday a weakening cut-off low will be meandering around the Four Corners area and keeping things unstable but there will be less moisture. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease but not go away.

*** Snow levels will bounce around between 9,000ft and 10,500ft. Our mountains above 10,000ft could end up with 6-10” of snow. ***

Temps… Tuesday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s. Wednesday through Sunday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Winds… Tuesday through Saturday each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. The windy spots could hit 25mph. Sunday will be the windiest day of the week with gusts 30-35mph. Monday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

NBM precip to next Monday evening shows 0.57” near Pagosa and up to 1.00” in our mountains. The models vary considerably. Right now I think that this is on the high side for the Pagosa area, but it looks reasonable for the mountains.

The 8-14 day period… The pattern will stay active through about 7 May and then hints at drying out.

*Euro ensemble precip on the top to 13 May at 6am shows 1.70” for Pagosa and GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 1.64”. The forecast models are slowly trending upward with more moisture.*

The next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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