Spotty afternoon showers starting Tuesday…

Natural Bridges, Utah

Natural Bridges, Utah

Saturday – 26 Apr 2025 – 7:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Thursday was 64, and on Friday it was 68. The low this morning was 32. The cold spots dipped into the mid-20s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Thursday was 30mph and on Friday it was 31mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6174 / 19962612 / 1964

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Saturday evening – The low over CA will move slowly northeast over the next few days.  The jet stream, purple arrows, will be over us tomorrow and give us our strongest winds of the week. It’s dry over the Four Corners region.
Water vapor satellite Saturday evening – The low over CA will move slowly northeast over the next few days.  The jet stream, purple arrows, will be over us tomorrow and give us our strongest winds of the week. It’s dry over the Four Corners region.

Radar showed a few spotty showers over the southern San Juans in the afternoon but there’s nothing in our area at 6:45pm.

Forecast highlights…

*** Gusty winds each afternoon. Sunday will be the windiest day of the week with 30-40mph gusts. ***

*** Spotty afternoon showers starting Tuesday ***

Rest of Saturday through Monday… A trough will move through Sunday. It’s dry so I’m not expecting any precip.  We’ll see a few more clouds. Temps will be 5-10 degrees cooler Sunday and another 5 degrees cooler on Monday.

We’ll have mostly sunny skies and gusty afternoon winds.

Temps…

Sunday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Winds… *** Sunday afternoon gusts will be 30-40mph. *** Monday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

Tuesday through Saturday… There’s nothing organized headed our way, but it will be unstable enough each afternoon to kick up a few spotty afternoon showers, mostly over the mountains.Lucky spots could get up to 0.05” of precip.

Temps… Tuesday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be mid-20s to mid-30s. Wednesday and Thursday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-25mph.

NBM precip to next Saturday evening shows 0.04” near Pagosa and up to 0.20” in our mountains
NBM precip to next Saturday evening shows 0.04” near Pagosa and up to 0.20” in our mountains

The 8-14 day period… The models are hinting at a decent storm roughly 4-6 May, otherwise it’s just very spotty afternoon showers and playing the rain lottery.

Euro ensemble precip on the top to 11 May at 6am shows 0.95” for Pagosa and GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 1.16”. The forecast models are slowly trending upward with more moisture.
Euro ensemble precip on the top to 11 May at 6am shows 0.95” for Pagosa and GFS ensemble on the bottom shows 1.16”. The forecast models are slowly trending upward with more moisture.

The next post will be on Monday or Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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