Natural Bridges, Utah
Wednesday – 30 Apr 2025 – 4:45pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Monday was 55, and on Tuesday it was 57. The low this morning was 27. The cold spots were around 20.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Monday was 26mph and on Tuesday it was 25mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 62 | 81 / 1981 | 26 | 13 / 1909 |
Precipitation summary… A few light showers were mostly over the mountains yesterday. There was no measurable precip reported in the Pagosa Springs area.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Spotty afternoon showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two through Saturday. ***
*** Best chance for showers and thunderstorms is Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. ***
*** Spotty afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms could persist through next week. ***
Rest of Wednesday through Saturday… A ribbon of instability and moisture will stall in our area and will give us spotty afternoon showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two. The lucky spots could get up to 0.20”.
Temps… Wednesday night lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Thursday through Saturday highs will be in the high 50s to the high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.
Winds… Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Isolated higher gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday and Monday… A low-pressure system will park itself over northern AZ/southern UT. That puts us in the sweet spot for moisture, instability, and up-slope flow. We could get a decent soaking.
We’ll have periods of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance is each afternoon but hit and miss showers will persist through Sunday night. Lucky spots could get up to 0.50” of rain.
*** Snow levels will bounce around between 9,000ft and 10,500ft. Our mountains above 10,000ft could end up with 6-10” of snow. ***
Temps… Sunday and Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.
Winds… Sunday will be the windiest day of the week with gusts 25-30mph. Monday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph. Thunderstorms and strong showers will produce stronger gusts for brief periods.
Tuesday through the rest of next week… The weakening cut-off low will sink to the south but help keep things unstable. There will be less moisture, so afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease but will not go away.
The 8-14 day period… The forecast models are going back and forth between expecting a drier pattern and keeping the pattern active.
The next post will be on Friday. We’ll also be working on the April Summary/May Outlook and the monthly newsletter.
– Shawn
