Unsettled week ahead…

It’s a gray day up at Wolf Creek with a few spotty snowflakes – Wolf Creek Ski Area cam Sunday around 3:30pm

It’s a gray day up at Wolf Creek with a few spotty snowflakes – Wolf Creek Ski Area cam Sunday around 3:30pm

Sunday – 30 Mar 2025 – 3:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Friday was 57 and on Saturday it was 50. The low this morning was 25.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Friday was 28mph and on Saturday it was 23mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5272 / 198619-8 / 1975

Precipitation summary… There was a little precip Friday night. Wolf Creek reported 1” of new snow.  Folks in eastern Archuleta County reported some precip.

New CoCoRaHS observer, Dan, was the rain lottery winner near Klutter Mountain
New CoCoRaHS observer, Dan, was the rain lottery winner near Klutter Mountain. Welcome aboard Dan, and thanks for being a CoCoRaHS observer!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite around 2pm Sunday – A weak trough will move thorough this afternoon. The ridge will keep mostly dry to Monday evening. The low off the Pacific Northwest coast could impact the Four Corners region into Sunday or Monday.
Water vapor satellite around 2pm Sunday – A weak trough will move thorough this afternoon. The ridge will keep us mostly dry to Monday evening. The low off the Pacific Northwest coast could impact the Four Corners region Monday night into next Sunday or Monday.
Radar at 3:22pm Sunday – Scattered light showers are moving east ahead of a trough that will move through this evening.
Radar at 3:22pm Sunday – Scattered light showers are moving east ahead of a trough that will move through this evening.

Forecast highlights…

*** Spotty light showers Sunday afternoon. ***

*** A round of precip Monday night into Tuesday evening. ***

*** Spotty showers Tuesday night to Friday morning. ***

*** Another round of precip Friday afternoon into Saturday night. ***

Rest of Sunday into Monday evening… A weak trough will move through Sunday evening and kick up scattered showers. The mountains will get less than 1” of spotty snow and the Pagosa area will get a few scattered “rainflakes” and graupel.

Monday will start with partly cloudy skies and then clouds and winds will increase through the afternoon.

Temps… Sunday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.

Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Sunday and Monday afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph in the Pagosa area and 35-45mph in the mountains.

Monday night into next Sunday afternoon – 6 April… It looks like two systems will move through.

The first will move through Monday night into Tuesday evening. The second will move through Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon. Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday will still be unsettled with spotty showers, mostly over the mountains.

Snow levels will start around 8,500ft Monday night. By sunrise Tuesday, they’ll drop to around 7,600ft. The rest of this period the snow levels will bounce between 6,500ft each night to 7,500ft each afternoon.

We won’t need our snowblowers and snow shovels. Temps will be in the mid-30s to low 40s each afternoon so snow will struggle to accumulate.  Any snow that falls during the night will melt in the afternoon.

*** Tuesday will be the windiest day of the week with gusts in the Pagosa area up to 40mph and gusts in the mountains 50-60mph. ***

Snow amounts Monday night through Tuesday night…

Mountains above 9,000ft: 3-6”

Pagosa area: up to 1”

Snow amounts Wednesday morning to sunrise Friday…

Mountains: 2-4”

Pagosa area: up to 1” but it will be spotty

Snow amounts Friday morning to Sunday morning…

Mountains: 4-8”

Pagosa area: 1-2”

*** I’ll continue to make adjustments as the data gets better. ***

The “official” NWS snow forecast to 6am Wednesday shows less than 1” for Pagosa and 4-8” in the Wolf Creek area.
The “official” NWS snow forecast to 6am Wednesday shows less than 1” for Pagosa and 4-8” in the Wolf Creek area.
NBM snow for the entire period from Sunday afternoon to next Sunday evening expects 3.4” near Pagosa and 12” to 18” near Wolf Creek. This looks reasonable for the entire period.
NBM snow for the entire period from today to next Sunday evening expects 3.4” near Pagosa and 12” to 18” near Wolf Creek. This looks reasonable for the entire period.

The next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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