Lots of ice on Williams Creek Reservoir – pic taken 26 Mar 2025
Friday – 28 Mar 2025 – 3:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Wednesday was 66 and on Thursday it was 66. The low this morning was 30.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Wednesday was 24mph and on Thursday it was 25mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 50 | 70 / 1986 | 19 | -8 / 1930 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Valley rain and mountain snow tonight. Wolf Creek Pass could get slick overnight. ***
*** Next week looks wet. ***
Rest of Friday through Saturday morning … Friday afternoon will be mostly cloudy with gusty winds.
Bands of showers will move though after sunset Friday to around sunrise Saturday ahead of a trough.
Snow levels will be above 9,000ft Friday evening and then drop to around 8,000ft by sunrise Saturday.
Snow amounts…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 2-4”
Pagosa area above 8,000ft: a dusting of slushy snow
Pagosa area below 8,000ft: mostly rain – no snow accumulation
Temps… Friday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.
Winds… Friday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph in the Pagosa area and 40-45mph in the mountains.
Saturday afternoon into Monday evening… It will stay unsettled with fast-moving, weak troughs that have limited moisture. A few spotty showers are possible each afternoon, mostly over the mountains. Precip amounts will be minimal.
Temps… Saturday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20 to low 30s.
Sunday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and low will be in the high teens to high 20s.
Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.
Winds… Saturday, Sunday, and Monday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph in the Pagosa area and 40-45mph in the mountains.
Monday night into next Sunday afternoon – 6 April… Though timing and precip amounts are still uncertain, things are becoming clearer. It looks like two systems will move through.
The first will move through Monday night into Tuesday evening. The second will move through Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon. Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday will still be unsettled with spotty showers, mostly over the mountains.
Snow levels will start above 8,000ft Monday night. By sunrise Tuesday, they’ll drop to around 7,600ft. The rest of this period the snow levels will bounce between 6,500ft each night to 7,500ft each afternoon.
We won’t need our snowblowers and snow shovels. Temps will be in the mid-30s to low 40s each afternoon so snow will struggle to accumulate. Any snow that falls during the night will melt in the afternoon.
*** Tuesday will be the windiest day of the week with gusts in the Pagosa area up to 40mph and gusts in the mountains 50-60mph. ***
Rough snow amounts for this entire period…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 10-15”
Pagosa area above 7,800ft: 2-3”
Pagosa are below 7,800ft: a dusting to 2”
*** I’ll make adjustments as the data gets better. ***
If we’re lucky we’ll get another powder day or two before Wolf Creek closes!
The next post will be on Sunday. I’ll probably do posts every day next week.
– Shawn
