Williams Creek Reservoir is still covered with ice – pic taken 3/11/2025
Wednesday – 12 Mar 2025 – 4:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Monday was 55 and on Tuesday it was 54. The low this morning was 21.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Monday afternoon was 17mph and Tuesday afternoon it was 26mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 47 | 68 / 1989 | 14 | -13 / 1962 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our area Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast highlights…
*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER WARNING for the eastern San Juan Mountains – this includes Wolf Creek and Cumbres passes. 6-14” of snow and winds gusting to 60mph are expected from noon Thursday to noon Friday. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.
*** Travel conditions on Wolf Creek Pass will deteriorate Thursday afternoon. Roads in the Pagosa area could be slick Thursday night and Friday morning. ***
*** Next storm Monday night into Wednesday afternoon. ***
Rest of Wednesday into Thursday morning… There will be more clouds ahead of the next storm.
Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.
Winds… Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.
Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon… A low-pressure system will move through.
Timing… Thursday afternoon showers will gradually increase – rain below 7,800ft and heavy wet snow above. The best chance for snow near Pagosa is late Thursday evening into Friday morning, and then showers will be spotty through Friday afternoon.
The snow level will pop up to 7,800ft Thursday afternoon and then gradually drop to 7,000ft between 11pm and midnight.
Snow amounts Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon – most if it will fall Thursday night…
Wolf Creek area: 8-12”
Pagosa area below 7,600ft: 1-3”
Pagosa area above 7,600ft: 2-4”
Temps… Thursday highs will be in the low to mid-40s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Friday highs will be in the mid to high 30s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.
Winds… Thursday afternoon gusts in the Pagosa area will be 20-25mph and in the mountains gusts to 35mph are possible. *** Friday gusts in the Pagosa area will be 30-35mph and in the mountains gusts of 50-60mph are possible. ***
Friday night through Monday afternoon… Saturday afternoon a weak trough will move through in northwest flow (doesn’t favor us). Scattered snowshowers will develop in the afternoon. Lucky spots in the Pagosa area could get a half inch and the mountains 1-2” is possible.
Sunday a fast-moving ridge will give us lots of sun and warmer temps.
Monday the ridge will move to our east and clouds will increase.
Temps… Friday night lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Saturday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Sunday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be mid-teens to mid-20s. Monday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.
Winds… Saturday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. Sunday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Monday afternoon gusts near Pagosa will be 20-25mph and the mountains could see gusts to 40mph.
Monday night into Wednesday afternoon… The next storm will move through. It won’t have as much storm energy and moisture so precip amounts will be lower.
The best chance for precip is midnight Monday to midnight Tuesday.
Rough first guess snow amounts…
Wolf Creek area: 2-4”
Pagosa area: a dusting to 2”
*** I’ll adjust timing and snow amounts as the data gets better. ***
Temps… Monday night lows will be in the low 20 to high 20s. Tuesday highs will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Wednesday highs will be near 40 to the high 40s.
Winds… *** Tuesday afternoon gusts in the Pagosa area will be 30-35mph and in the mountains gusts to 50mph are possible. *** Wednesday afternoon will be around 20mph.
If my forecast is out of whack, I’ll do another post on Thursday. Otherwise, expect another post on Friday.
– Shawn
