Kudos to the groomers up at Wolf Creek! – Pic taken 1/27/2025
Monday – 27 Jan 2025 – 6:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Sunday was 43 and on Monday it was 46. The low this morning was 12. The cold spots were near zero.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Sunday afternoon was 12mph and on Monday it was 17mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 40 | 53 / 1982 | 4 | -26 / 1917 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for the Southwest San Juan Mountains. 6-10” of snow is expected between 11pm Tuesday and 5am Thursday. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.
*** The next storm is possible the second half of next week. ***
Monday night through Tuesday evening… Moisture will gradually increase ahead of the low currently over west-central AZ. A spotty snowshower is possible, mostly over the mountains. I don’t expect any accumulation near Pagosa or up Wolf Creek.
Temps… Lows Monday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to high 40s.
Winds… Afternoon peaks on Tuesday will be around 20mph.
Early Wednesday morning to Thursday afternoon… The low will move through northern NM. The best storm energy and moisture will be over us from sunrise Wednesday to early Thursday morning.
Timing… Scattered snowshowers will gradually increase early Wednesday morning. Most of the snow will fall after sunrise Wednesday through Wednesday evening. Scattered snowshowers will taper off near Pagosa early Thursday morning but could persist over the mountains into Thursday afternoon.
Roads… Wolf Creek Pass will be slick most of this period. In the lower elevations, temps will be above freezing during the period of heaviest snowfall. If we’re lucky, most roads near Pagosa will be wet or slushy during the day on Wednesday. Wednesday evening, after the sun sets, roads could ice up across the region.
Snow amounts…
Mountains: 6-10”
Pagosa area: 2-4”
Chromo and Chama areas: 3-6”
Temps… Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s. Wednesday night lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Thursday night lows will be near 10 to the high teens.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.
This looks good to me, but another 1” of snow is possible near Pagosa after this time period.
Thursday evening through Monday… The storm track will shift back to our north. We’ll see a lot of blue sky and temps will warm to above average.
Temps… Thursday night lows will be near 10 to the high teens. Friday and Saturday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Sunday and Monday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph each day.
The next storm?… Things are trying to line up for the next storm to move through Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday next week (5-7 Feb). It’s too far out for details, but it doesn’t look impressive and could be warmer with higher snow levels.
Unless there’s a significant change to my forecast, my next post will be Wednesday morning.
– Shawn
