Moody sky up at Wolf Creek Saturday afternoon – screen capture from Wolf Creek Ski Area
Sunday – 5 Jan 2025 – 3:45pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Saturday was 45 and on Sunday it was 36. The low this morning was 10. The cold spots dipped into the low single digits.
Peak wind at Stevens Field Saturday afternoon was 43mph and on Sunday afternoon it was 10mph.
The peak wind up at Wolf Creek Pass/Lobo Overlook was 60mph Saturday afternoon.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 34 | 55 / 1958 | -2 | -35 / 1949 |
Precipitation summary… There were a few spotty snowflakes in the Pagosa area and up at Wolf Creek Saturday afternoon, but it wasn’t enough to measure.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our area.
Forecast highlights…
*** Spotty snowshowers Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning over the mountains. ***
*** Best chance for snow in the Pagosa area and the mountains is Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. ***
Rest of Sunday through Monday morning… A transient ridge will move through. Scattered clouds this evening will increase Monday morning. Temps will be near seasonal averages.
Temps… Sunday night lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.
Monday afternoon through Tuesday night… The next trough will deepen into a low over NV and sink south towards the Baja Peninsula. We’ll be on the northern edge of the clouds and light precip.
Timing… Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning spotty light snowshowers will be mostly over the mountains. The best chance for snow near Pagosa and in the mountains is Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Snowshowers will end before midnight in the valley and persist into early Wednesday morning over the mountains.
Snow amounts…
Wolf Creek area: 2-4”
Pagosa area: a dusting to 2”
Temps… Monday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s. Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.
Tuesday night through Friday… A strong ridge will build along the coast. Upper-level flow in our area will be out of the north. The forecast models indicate a couple of weak troughs are possible, but a northerly trajectory means there will be minimal moisture.
We’ll stay dry and see occasional patches of mid and high clouds move through. Temps will be near seasonal averages.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.
The 8-15 day period… The forecast models are getting more active and inconsistent. The Euro ensemble, often my preferred model, is the least optimistic, while the Euro AI is the most optimistic and the GFS ensemble is in the middle. Let’s hope the Euro AI is on to something!
In the upper left the Euro ensemble shows 0.49”.
In the upper right the Euro AI shows 1.33”.
In the bottom left the GFS ensemble shows 0.80”.
In the bottom right the Canadian ensemble shows 0.57”.
The Euro AI and GFS ensemble are hinting at a more active pattern. The Euro ensemble and Canadian ensemble aren’t convinced.
My next post will be on Tuesday.
– Shawn
2 Responses
I really hope the optimistic projections start becoming reality. This winter has been depressing especially as it starts getting colder but with no reward (the fluffy white stuff). Thank you for the work you and your team do. As unfortunate as many of the messages have been so far, the accuracy is appreciated as most of the other weather services like to lie to us here lol
Allen, we are depressed too but are finally seeing hints of hope at the end of the month. Thank you for your kind words. -Arleen