Spotty snowflakes and gusty winds Saturday afternoon…

FESTUS and YANG are available for adoption at the Humane Society! Hanging out with FETUS makes my day.  He’s a goofy, playful, affectionate pup. YANG is a sweet youngster, still a bit overwhelmed by the big world.  Either of these guys will be fantastic companions!

FESTUS and YANG are available for adoption at the Humane Society! Hanging out with FETUS makes my day.  He’s a goofy, playful, affectionate pup. YANG is a sweet youngster, still a bit overwhelmed by the big world.  Either of these guys will be fantastic companions!

Friday – 3 Jan 2025 – 5:20pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Thursday was 46 and on Friday it was 52 – a record high!  The low this morning was 16. The cold spots dipped into the low teens.

Peak wind at Stevens Field Thursday afternoon was 8mph and on Friday afternoon it was 9mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3451 / 19810-32 / 1911

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite on Friday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, is over our heads.  Mid and high clouds are increasing across the region from the southwest. The low off the coast will move northeast and fall apart while the southern part of the trough moves through our area Saturday evening.
Satellite on Friday afternoon – The ridge, jagged blue line, is over our heads.  Mid and high clouds are increasing across the region from the southwest. The low off the coast will move northeast and fall apart while the southern part of the trough moves through our area Saturday evening.

There is nothing on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** A few spotty snowflakes and gusty winds Saturday afternoon. ***

*** Light scattered snowshowers Monday afternoon into Tuesday evening. ***

Saturday… A trough will move through Saturday evening. We’ll see more clouds, gusty winds, and a few scattered snowshowers in the afternoon.

Snow amounts…

Wolf Creek area: up to 1”

Pagosa area: a dusting at best

Winds… *** Saturday afternoon gusts will be 25-35mph. Gusts to 45mph are likely in the mountains. ***

Temps… Saturday highs will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

The “official” NWS snow forecast shows a dusting in the Pagosa area and up to 1” in our mountains. The central and northern mountains will be favored again.
The “official” NWS snow forecast shows a dusting in the Pagosa area and up to 1” in our mountains. The central and northern mountains will be favored again.

Sunday through Monday morning… A transient ridge will move through.  We’ll stay dry and see scattered mid and high clouds. Temps will be near seasonal averages.

Temps… Sunday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and the lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday night… The next trough will deepen into a low over NV and sink south towards the Baja Peninsula. We’ll be on the northern edge of the clouds and light precip.

Timing… Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning spotty light snowshowers will be mostly over the mountains. The best chance for snow near Pagosa and in the mountains is Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Snowshowers will end before midnight in the valley and persist into early the Wednesday morning over the mountains.

Snow amounts…

Wolf Creek area: 1-3”

Pagosa area: up to 1” in the lucky spots

Temps… Monday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s. Tuesday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Euro snow to Tuesday at 11pm shows around 1” in the Pagosa area and up to 3” in our mountains.
Euro snow to Tuesday at 11pm shows around 1” in the Pagosa area and up to 3” in our mountains.

Tuesday night through Thursday… A strong ridge will build along the coast.  Upper-level flow in our area will be out of the north. The forecast models indicate a couple of weak troughs are possible, but a northerly trajectory means there will be minimal moisture.

We’ll stay dry and see occasional patches of mid and high clouds move through.  Temps will be near seasonal averages.

Temps… Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.

The 8-15 day period… The pattern is “stuck” with a ridge over the western US and a trough over the east. I don’t see anything to get excited about.

These are ensemble precip forecast products to 5am on 18 Jan. In the upper left the Euro ensemble shows 0.36”. In the upper right the Euro AI shows 0.39”. In the bottom left the GFS ensemble shows 0.63”. In the bottom right the Canadian ensemble shows 0.33”. Notes: The models agree that upper-level flow will be mostly out the west and northwest. This does not favor us.
These are ensemble precip forecast products to 5am on 18 Jan.
In the upper left the Euro ensemble shows 0.36”.
In the upper right the Euro AI shows 0.39”.
In the bottom left the GFS ensemble shows 0.63”.
In the bottom right the Canadian ensemble shows 0.33”.

Notes: The models agree that upper-level flow will be mostly out the west and northwest. This does not favor us.

My next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

One Response

  1. Thanks for posting the pics & hanging out with those sweet doggies @ the Humane Society! Hopefully they will get adopted!!!

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