Standing lenticular clouds over our mountains earlier today – pic taken 12/12/2024
Thursday – 12 Dec 2024 – 4:40pm
The past…
There has been no data from Stevens Field since 11:19am on 9 December.
This morning the cold spots dipped into the mid-single digits.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 40 | 55 / 1934 | 6 | -32 / 1961 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
The main trough and the precip is moving through NV. The storm energy from the trough will stay to our north.
There is nothing on radar in our area.
Forecast highlights…
*** A weak system will move through late Thursday night into Friday. ***
Thursday night to Friday evening… A weak, fast-moving system will bring more clouds and a few spotty snowflakes. Lucky spots in the mountains will get up to 1” of snow. Wolf Creek Pass could be slick.
Temps will be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow. Up at Wolf Creek, temps will be in the mid-teens and winds could gust to 40mph resulting in wind chills below zero – brrrr.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.
Temps… Highs Friday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows Friday night will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.
Friday night through Thursday… Upper-level flow will mostly be zonal – west to east. Weak transient ridges and troughs will move rapidly through the region.
Every other day, a weak, fast-moving trough will move through the region. The best storm energy and moisture will stay to our north. Precip amounts will be minimal and spotty in our area.
There is a slight chance for a few spotty snowflakes in the mountains Sunday and Tuesday.
Winds… Sunday, and Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Saturday, Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.
Temps… Highs will range from the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.
The 8-14 day period… I don’t see a pattern change or any significant storms on the horizon.
My thoughts: For 15-day forecast products, these are surprisingly consistent. Note the higher precip amounts along the coastal mountains and into Idaho. Again, all four forecast models are being consistent. Higher precip totals in those areas means the pattern will be active but it will be a west to east pattern and a northwest to southeast pattern. This does not favor Colorado.
When might the pattern change? Let’s start with my least favorite: The Canadian ensemble doesn’t show any significant change into the third week of January – boooo hissss. The GFS shows the pattern getting more active starting around 10 Jan. It only goes out to 14 Jan. My favorite, the Euro ensemble, shows a more active pattern starting around 10 Jan and staying active through the rest of January – GO EURO!
My thoughts… Inconsistency like this is common in long range forecast models and why forecasters don’t trust them. It boosts forecast confidence a little to see the two superior forecast models – Euro and GFS – telling a similar story.
Sadly we could be stuck with this pattern for another four weeks. In the meantime, let’s cheer for these forecast models to be very wrong and hope that a surprise storm or two blankets us with a bunch of unexpected snow!
My next post will be on Saturday.
– Shawn
