Sunny, dry, and a warming trend…

Flat light and chilly temps yesterday at Wolf Creek. The groomers were fun! – pic taken 12/13/2024

Saturday – 14 Dec 2024 – 4:00pm

The past…

There has been no data from Stevens Field since 11:19am on 9 December.

This morning the cold spots dipped into the mid-single digits.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
39	58 / 1929	4	-20 / 1949

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 48 hours. Wolf Creek received a dusting yesterday.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite Saturday afternoon – The ridge, blue jagged line, has moved to our east. Upper-level flow out of the southwest is pushing more mid and high-level clouds into the region. There is no precip associated with those clouds in our area. The low over CA will weaken and move northeast. It won’t impact us. — Satellite Saturday afternoon – The ridge, blue jagged line, has moved to our east. Upper-level flow out of the southwest is pushing more mid and high-level clouds into the region. There is no precip associated with those clouds in our area.
*The low over CA will weaken and move northeast. It won’t impact us.*

There is nothing on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun and a warming trend. ***

*** A few snowflakes on Christmas Day? ***

Rest of Saturday through next Saturday… Upper-level flow will mostly be zonal – west to east. Weak transient ridges and troughs will move rapidly through the region.

The weak, fast-moving troughs will stay to our north and we’ll stay dry.

Winds… Sunday, and Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. For the rest of this period, afternoon peaks will be around 10mph.

Temps… Sunday through Wednesday highs will range from the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Thursday through Saturday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

The 8-15 day period… I don’t see a pattern change or any significant storms on the horizon.

On a positive note… Today’s forecast model runs show a weak system with a few snowflakes moving through on Christmas day. That’s still 11 days out so forecast confidence is low. Wash those cars and do those snow dances!

The 15-day model forecasts to 5am on 29 Dec – In the upper left corner, the Euro AI shows 1.09” near Pagosa. In the upper right corner, the Euro ensemble shows 0.12”. In the bottom left corner, the GFS ensemble shows 0.26”. In the bottom right corner, the Canadian ensemble shows 0.21”. My thoughts: The Euro AI is the outlier with over an inch of precip for us. The other three models are pretty consistent. The models are consistent in showing in high precip amounts for the coast mountain ranges and Idaho. Higher precip totals in those areas means the pattern will be active but it will be a west to east pattern and a northwest to southeast pattern. This does not favor Colorado. — The 15-day precip forecasts to 5am on 29 Dec – In the upper left corner, the Euro AI shows 1.09” near Pagosa. In the upper right corner, the Euro ensemble shows 0.12”. In the bottom left corner, the GFS ensemble shows 0.26”. In the bottom right corner, the Canadian ensemble shows 0.21”.

My thoughts: The Euro AI is the outlier with over an inch of precip for us. The other three models are pretty consistent. The models are also consistent in showing high precip amounts for the coastal mountain ranges and Idaho. Higher precip totals in those areas means the pattern will be active but it will be a west to east pattern and a northwest to southeast pattern. This does not favor Colorado.

My next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

One Response

Connie Mentemeier says:

December 14, 2024 at 6:53 pm

Thanks Shawn for the recent weather report! Will try doing a snow dance and wash our vehicles to increase our snow chances for Christmas Day!

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