Another weak system on Friday…

A colorful sky over Pagosa Peak at sunset – pic taken 12/9/2024

Tuesday – 10 Dec 2024 – 2:45pm

The past…

There has been no data from Stevens Field since 11:19am on 9 December.

This morning the cold spots dipped down to zero.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
40	61 / 1981	8	-26 / 1951

Precipitation summary… Yesterday afternoon a few folks got a few snowflakes. Wolf Creek reported 3” of new snow.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite Tuesday afternoon – Yesterday’s trough is moving through OK. Dry upper-flow northwest flow has cleared us out. A ridge is building along the coast will give us dry weather through Thursday. — Satellite Tuesday afternoon – Yesterday’s trough is moving through OK. Dry upper-level northwest flow has cleared us out. A ridge is building along the coast and will give us dry weather through Thursday.

There is nothing on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** Chilly today and then warming a trend Wednesday and Thursday. ***

*** Another weak system will move through late Thursday night into Friday. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Thursday evening… A ridge will build over the region. We’ll have lots of sun and a gradual warming trend.

Clouds will increase Thursday as the ridge moves to our east.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 10mph.

Temps… Highs Tuesday will be 30-40 and lows Tuesday night will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Highs Wednesday will be in the high 30s to high 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens. Highs Thursday will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.

Thursday night to Friday evening… A weak, fast-moving system will bring more clouds and a few spotty snowflakes. Lucky spots in the mountains will get up to 1” of snow. Wolf Creek Pass could be slick.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs Friday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows Friday night will be 10-20.

WPC precip shows 0.02” near Pagosa and up to 0.075” in the mountains. This would be dusting of snow near town and around 1” in the mountains. This looks good to me. — *WPC precip shows 0.02” near Pagosa and up to 0.075” in the mountains. This would be a dusting of snow near town and around 1” in the mountains. This looks good to me.*

Friday night through Tuesday morning… Upper-level flow will mostly be zonal – west to east. Weak transient ridges and troughs will move rapidly through the region.

We’ll see more high clouds and temps near seasonal averages.

There is a slight chance for spotty snowflakes in the mountains Sunday night into Monday morning.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Highs will range from the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.

The 8-14 day period… I don’t see any significant storms on the horizon. We need some snow dances!

Ensemble 24-hour precip meteograms to 6am Christmas morning. These are read left to right. On the top, the Euro shows the potential for 4 weak systems. Consensus is weak and precip amounts are low. On the bottom, the GFS looks similar for system 1, but timing for system 2 is quite different. System 3 is less certain. These are disappointing, but they’re better than nothing. — *Ensemble 24-hour precip meteograms to 6am Christmas morning. These are read left to right.*

*On the top, the Euro shows the potential for 4 weak systems. Consensus is weak and precip amounts are low.*

*On the bottom, the GFS looks similar for system 1, but timing for system 2 is quite different. System 3 is less certain.*

*These are disappointing, but they’re better than nothing.*

*The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precip outlook to 24 Dec expects a 40-50% chance of below average precip. I think it’s more like 75%.*

My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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