Getting harder to stay optimistic for snow…

Empty slopes, great weather, and fun groomed runs up at Wolf Creek – pic taken 12/6/2024

Empty slopes, great weather, and fun groomed runs up at Wolf Creek – pic taken 12/6/2024

Saturday – 7 Dec 2024 – 5:45pm

The Festival Trees was a success!  We were reminded again how wonderful and generous our community is!
The Festival Trees was a success!  We were reminded again how wonderful and generous our community is!
A BIG THANKS to our team and everyone else that participated.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Friday was 52 and on Saturday it was 48.  The low this morning was 18.  The cold spots dipped into the low teens.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Friday was 6mph and on Saturday it was 8mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4367 / 19068-26 / 1955

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite Saturday around sunset – The Rex block is finally breaking down. The weak low is ejecting towards the northeast and the ridge is weakening. The trough over the Pacific Northwest will split in two. The southern trough will move through Colorado on Monday.
Satellite Saturday around sunset – The Rex block is finally breaking down. The weak low is ejecting towards the northeast and the ridge is weakening. The trough over the Pacific Northwest will split in two. The southern trough will move through Colorado on Monday.

There is nothing on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** A weak low-pressure system will move through Colorado on Monday. ***

*** Wind chills in the mountains will be below zero Monday and Tuesday. ***

*** Dry and sunny the rest of the week. ***

Saturday night through Sunday night… The Rex block is still in control but is finally breaking down.

Clouds will increase Sunday, and temps will be a little cooler.

Winds… Afternoon winds will be 5-10mph.

Temps… Saturday night lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Sunday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.

Monday through Tuesday morning… A low-pressure system will move through Colorado from the northwest.  It’s a weak system with limited storm energy and moisture, especially in our area.

The best chance for a few snowflakes is Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

Clouds will clear Monday night, and it will be cold Tuesday morning.

Snow levels… Snow levels will be 6,000ft or lower.

Snow amounts…

Mountains: A dusting to 2”

Valley: Zero to a dusting

Winds… Monday afternoon gusts will be 15-25mph.

Temps… Highs Monday afternoon will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows Monday will be in the low single digits to low teens.

NBM snow to Tuesday at 5am shows a dusting along the mountains, and 1” near Wolf Creek. This system looks like a dud for us.
NBM snow to Tuesday at 5am shows a dusting along the mountains, and 1” near Wolf Creek. This system looks like a dud for us.

Tuesday afternoon through Friday… A ridge will build over the region.  We’ll have lots of sun and a gradual warming trend.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 10mph.

Temps… Highs Tuesday will be in the low to high 30s and lows Tuesday night will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Highs Wednesday will be in the high 30s to high 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Next weekend another weak system could move through. At this point, I’m not expecting much. 

The 8-14 day period… I don’t see any significant storms on the horizon. We need some snow dances!

The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precip outlook expects a 33-50% chance of below average precip.  I think it’s more like 75%.
The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precip outlook expects a 33-50% chance of below average precip.  I think it’s more like 75%.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

One Response

  1. I wanted to tell you guys how impressive the Pagosa Weather tree entry looked in the parade of trees at the Community Center. Kudos to everyone who worked to display from the choice green to the layout of the beautifully wrapped gifts. I hope it earned its effort.

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