Lots of sun for a while…

The mountains look glorious covered in a bunch of new snow – pic taken 11/27/2024

The mountains look glorious covered in a bunch of new snow – pic taken 11/27/2024

Friday – 29 Nov 2024 – 5:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Thursday was 39 and on Friday it was 40. The low this morning was 16. The cold spots dipped into the high single digits.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Thursday was 7mph and on Friday it was 8mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4358 / 197310-25 / 1952

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite Friday around sunset – A high over a low is a “Rex block”. Split flow around the block prevents systems from moving through the region. Our weather will be boring for a while.
Satellite Friday around sunset – A high over a low is a “Rex block”. Split flow around the block prevents systems from moving through the region. Our weather will be boring for a while.

There is nothing on radar in our area.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun and dry for a while – boooo hissss ***

Friday night through Thursday… A Rex block will prevent systems from moving through our area. Dry flow out of the northwest will give us a lot of sun and dry weather. Temps will be 5-10 degrees above average next week.

Temps… Friday night lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Saturday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Sunday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Monday through Thursday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

The 8-14 day period… The blocking pattern will begin breaking down around 9/10 Dec and a couple of weak systems could move through from the northwest. This isn’t favorable for us.

Euro ensemble snowfall to 6am on 14 Dec on the top shows around an inch in the Pagosa area. GFS ensemble snowfall on the bottom shows 1-2” in the Pagosa area. I added the yellow arrows to show general storm track.  Northwest isn’t favorable for us.
Euro ensemble snowfall to 6am on 14 Dec on the top shows around an inch in the Pagosa area.
GFS ensemble snowfall on the bottom shows 1-2” in the Pagosa area.

I added the yellow arrows to show general storm track.  Northwest flow isn’t favorable for us.

My next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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