This storm is about done – now it will be dry for a while…

Snowpack looks good!

Wednesday – 27 Nov 2024 – 3:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Tuesday was 38 just before midnight last night. The low this morning was 35.

The peak wind at Stevens Field was 24mph at 2:35am last night and at Lobo Overlook the peak wind was 52mph but there is a lot of missing data.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
43	61 / 1943	11	-22 / 1952

Precipitation summary… Snow fell in the Pagosa area most of the day, but changed to rain in the late afternoon and into the evening. Snow amounts were low but lined up with my forecast.

Wolf Creek reported 19” of new snow today and a storm total of 21” – in line with my forecast.

*CoCoRaHS 2-day storm total precip ranged from 0.46” to 1.29”. The rain lottery winner was Debbie in the San Juan River Village. The northern half of the county got over 0.75”.*

CoCoRaHS 2-day storm total snow ranged from zero to 4.4”. Arleen is snow lottery winner just north of Turkey Springs. — *CoCoRaHS 2-day storm total snow ranged from zero to 4.4”. Arleen is the snow lottery winner just north of Turkey Springs.*

IF this storm was colder, snow totals would be 5” to 13”.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite loop roughly 1pm to 2pm Wednesday afternoon – We’re on the northern edge of the band of moisture. The band of moisture will push to our south this evening and we’ll clear out overnight. Snowshowers persist up at Wolf Creek but will be ending this evening. — Satellite loop roughly 1pm to 2pm Wednesday afternoon – We’re on the northern edge of the band of moisture. The band of moisture will push to our south this evening and we’ll clear out overnight.
*Snowshowers persist up at Wolf Creek but will be ending this evening.*

*Radar at 3pm on Wednesday – In our area a band of light snow persists over the mountains.*

Forecast highlights…

*** There is an AVALANCHE WARNING out for the mountains. Avalanche danger is very dangerous. ***

*** Scattered snowshowers mostly over the mountains into Wednesday evening. The mountains could get another inch of snow. ***

*** After this storm, it will be dry for a while – boooo hissss ***

Wednesday night through Tuesday… High pressure will build over the region. Dry flow out of the northwest will give us a lot of sun. Temps will be near to slightly above average by the weekend.

Patchy fog is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Temps… Lows Wednesday night will be in the high single digits to mid-teens. Thursday and Friday highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Saturday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

The 8-14 day period… A blocking pattern looks more and more likely. We could be dry for a while.

Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram for Pagosa to 6am on 12 Dec – This product is read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom graphs those amounts. The first period shows what’s left of our outgoing storm. And then it’s dry through at least 9 Dec. Then the forecast models hint that the pattern will get more active. — Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram for Pagosa to 6am on 12 Dec – This product is read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom graphs those amounts.
*The first period shows what’s left of our outgoing storm. And then it’s dry through at least 9 Dec. Then the forecast models hint that the pattern will get more active.*

The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook on the top expects a 40-50% chance of below average precip. I think it’s closer to 75%. The temp outlook on the bottom expects a 60-70% chance of above average temps. I agree. — *The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook on the top expects a 40-50% chance of below average precip. I think it’s closer to 75%.*
*The temp outlook on the bottom expects a 60-70% chance of above average temps. I agree.*

My next post will be on Friday. Happy Thanksgiving!

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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