Snowman is happy! – Pic taken 11/26/2024
Tuesday – 26 Nov 2024 – 12:45pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Monday afternoon was 45 and the low this morning was 32.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Monday was 16mph and at Lobo Overlook the peak wind was 39mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 44 | 64 / 1943 | 12 | -20 / 1952 |
Precipitation summary… Light snow fell overnight. Wolf Creek reported 2” of new snow this morning.
Forecast discussion…
We have repeatedly asked questions about things that could potentially make it more useful to us, but we haven’t gotten answers.
Forecast highlights…
*** There is a WINTER STORM WARNING for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft – this includes Wolf Creek Pass. The warning expires 5am Thursday. Heavy snow, gusty winds, and poor visibility will result in bad travel conditions. ***
*** There is an AVALANCHE WATCH out for the mountains. Avalanche danger is expected to get very dangerous through the afternoon and into tomorrow. ***
*** After this storm, it will be dry for a while – boooo hissss ***
Rest of Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon… The main band of moisture and storm energy will be over us. It will snow heavily in the mountains, but in much of the valley, snow will change to rain late Tuesday afternoon.
As of noon Tuesday, temps in the Pagosa area range from 32 to 34 and it’s snowing. Temps in the Durango area range from 33 to 36 and it’s raining.
Timing… The heaviest precip will fall into late Wednesday morning. *** Driving conditions will be poor in the mountains during this period. *** Scattered showers will decrease Wednesday afternoon. We could be treated to a pretty sunset on Wednesday.
Snow levels…
Tuesday day: rising to around 8,500ft by late afternoon
Tuesday night: around 8,500ft
Wednesday day: starting around 8,000ft and dropping to 7,000ft
Snow amounts from Tuesday morning to Wednesday afternoon…
Mountains: 16-24”
Valley above 8,000ft: 2-4”
Valley below 8,000ft: up to 2”
Winds… Occasional gusts to 20mph are possible in wind prone areas. In the mountains winds will gust 40-50mph late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.
Temps… Highs Tuesday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. Highs Wednesday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows Wednesday night will be in the high single digits to mid-teens.
Note that is from 5am Tuesday and includes snow that has already fallen.
Wednesday night through Monday… High pressure will build over the region. Dry flow out of the northwest will give us a lot of sun. Temps will be near to slightly above average by the weekend.
Patchy fog is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Temps… Lows Wednesday night will be in the high single digits to mid-teens. Thursday and Friday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens. Saturday highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Sunday and Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
The 8-14 day period… A blocking pattern looks more and more likely. We could be dry for a while.
The temp outlook on the bottom expects a 50-60% chance of above average temps. I agree.
I’ll do a quick post on Facebook first thing tomorrow morning and then a more thorough post around noon.
– Shawn
