There was a great turn-out for the Upper San Juan Rivershed film event Monday evening! – Pic taken 11/18/2024
Wednesday – 20 Nov 2024 – 12:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Tuesday afternoon was 48. The low this morning was 12. The cold spots dipped into the mid-single digits.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Tuesday was 38mph and at Lobo Overlook the peak wind was 39mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 46 | 63 / 1989 | 13 | -7 / 1985 |
Precipitation summary… A few folks reported a few snowflakes in the valley. Wolf Creek did a little better than I expected with 4”.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar around noon on Wednesday.
Forecast highlights…
*** Nice fall weather the rest of the week. ***
*** Next week looks active with multiple chances for precip. ***
Wednesday through Saturday… High pressure will be in control. We’ll have lots of blue sky and stay dry.
Temps Wednesday will be 5 degrees below average and then warm to above average the rest of the week. Friday will be the nicest day of the week.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 10mph.
Temps… Highs Wednesday will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Highs Thursday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Highs Friday will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Highs Saturday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.
Sunday through Tuesday… Zonal, west to east, flow between a low off the Mexican coast and another one off the Pacific NW coast will funnel a narrow band of moisture across the region.
The band of moisture and surges of storm energy will waver north and south over the region next week. West to east flow is not favorable for a big snow event for us. Right now, it looks like we’ll be on the southern end but there is still a lot of uncertainty.
The more certain part of the forecast is that this will be a “warm” system. A long fetch off the ocean will result in the rain/snow line bouncing around between 7,500ft and 8,000ft in our area.
Rough first guess snow amounts…
Mountains: 5-10”
Valley above 8,000ft: 1-3”
Valley below 8,000ft: up to 1”
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 10-20mph
Temps… Highs Sunday will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Highs Monday will be in the low 40 to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. High Tuesday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.
Forecast confidence in snow amounts is low.
The rest of next week could remain active with more chances for precip.
The next post will be on Friday.
– Shawn
