A snowflake or two tomorrow – next storm early next week…

Please check out the Upper San Juan Watershed Films Premiere!!! Monday evening, November 18, from 5:30 to 7:30 pm at Pagosa Springs Center for the Arts. Pagosa Weather is one of twelve+ water-related organizations that will interact with the public about water issues in our Upper San Juan River Watershed at this film release and educational event. All are invited to this FREE community event.  – Pic taken 04/2021

Please check out the Upper San Juan Watershed Films Premiere!!!

Monday evening, November 18, from 5:30 to 7:30 pm at Pagosa Springs Center for the Arts.

Pagosa Weather is one of twelve+ water-related organizations that will interact with the public about water issues in our Upper San Juan River Watershed at this film release and educational event.

All are invited to this FREE community event.  – Pic taken 04/2021

Monday – 18 Nov 2024 – 10:10am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Sunday afternoon was 48. The low this morning was 18. The cold spots dipped into the high single digits.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Sunday was 8mph and at Lobo Overlook the peak wind was 22mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4664 / 196315-15 / 1958

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite loop from roughly 8:30-9:30am Monday – Clouds are increasing ahead of a weak trough.  The trough will move through Tuesday afternoon and kick up a few weak snowshowers over the mountains.
Satellite loop from roughly 8:30-9:30am Monday – Clouds are increasing ahead of a weak trough.  The trough will move through Tuesday afternoon and kick up a few weak snowshowers over the mountains.
Radar at 9:44am Monday – A band of weak showers will miss us to the north.
Radar at 9:44am Monday – A band of weak showers will miss us to the north.

Forecast highlights…

*** A few snowflakes are possible early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. ***

*** Nice fall weather the second half of the week. ***

*** Next chance for snow late Sunday through Tuesday. ***

Monday night and Tuesday… We’ll catch the southern end of a fast-moving trough. Clouds will increase Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. There’s a slight chance for a few snowflakes early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

Snow forecast…

Wolf Creek: a dusting to 2”

Valley: a dusting in the lucky spots

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph

Temps… Monday night lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.  Tuesday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to high teens.

NBM snow to 11pm Tuesday shows a dusting along the mountains, and 1-2” near Wolf Creek.
NBM snow to 11pm Tuesday shows a dusting along the mountains, and 1-2” near Wolf Creek.

Wednesday through Saturday… High pressure will be in control.  We’ll have lots of blue sky and stay dry.  Temps Wednesday will be 5-10 degrees below average and then warm to slightly above average the rest of the week.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 10mph.

Temps… Highs Wednesday will be near 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.  Highs Thursday through Saturday will be near 50 to the high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Late Sunday through Tuesday… I’m tracking the next low-pressure system. The track, strength, and timing are uncertain. I’ll include details in my next post.

NBM snow to next Tuesday at 11pm shows 1.2” near Pagosa, 2.4” near Chama, and 10-15” near Wolf Creek. The forecast models are bouncing around between hardly anything and a decent storm.
NBM snow to next Tuesday at 11pm shows 1.2” near Pagosa, 2.4” near Chama, and 10-15” near Wolf Creek. The forecast models are bouncing around between hardly anything and a decent storm.

The next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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