The next system is a dud…

Happy snow pup admiring a great view of Wolf Creek – Pic taken 11/10/2024

Thursday – 14 Nov 2024 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Wednesday afternoon was 48. The low this morning was 21. The cold spots dipped into the mid-teens.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Wednesday was 8mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
50	65 / 1990	17	-10 / 1950

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

*Satellite Thursday morning – There is a lot of blue sky under the ridge. The next system will split which isn’t favorable for us.*

There is nothing on radar in our area Thursday morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Dry through Saturday. ***

*** Windy on Friday. ***

*** The next system looks like a dud for us. We could be dry for a while. ***

Rest of Thursday through Saturday… Thursday a transient ridge will give us lots of blue sky. Friday and Saturday clouds will increase ahead of the next trough. A few spotty snowflakes are possible in the mountains Saturday.

Temps will be near seasonal averages through Friday and then drop 5-10 degrees below average on Saturday.

Winds… Thursday afternoon winds will be 10-15mph. *** Friday afternoon gusts in the valley will be 25-35mph, and along mountain ridges gusts to 50mph are possible. *** Saturday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Thursday and Friday highs will be low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Saturday highs will be around 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in mid-teens to mid-20s.

Sunday through Tuesday… A broad trough will move through with some of the energy going to our north and some to the south – split flow. We’ll see more clouds and a few spotty showers. The best chance for precip is Tuesday. Precip amounts will be minimal.

Snow forecast…

Mountains: 1-2”

Valley: up to a half inch in the lucky spots

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 10-20mph

Temps… Sunday and Monday highs will be near 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Tuesday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.

*NBM snow to 11pm Tuesday shows 0.7” near Pagosa, 1.3” near Chama, and 2-3” near Wolf Creek.*

The 8-14 day period… Upper-level flow will be from the west and northwest. For us, it’s what I call “the scraps pattern”. The coastal mountains get most of the most moisture while we just get scraps.

*Euro ensemble precip 15-day precip on the top expects 0.36” near Pagosa and the GFS ensemble precip on the bottom expects 0.39”. A couple of weak systems will move through.*

*The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook indicates a 33-40% chance of below average precip. I think it’s more like 50-60% for us.*

The next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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