Dry through Saturday – Chance for snow Sunday night through Tuesday…

Snowshoeing high above Wolf Creek Pass – Pic taken 11/10/2024

Snowshoeing high above Wolf Creek Pass – Pic taken 11/10/2024

Tuesday – 12 Nov 2024 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Monday afternoon was 56 and on Tuesday it was 47. The low this morning was 25.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Monday was 9mph and on Tuesday it was 36mph.

Winds at Lobo Overlook near Wolf Creek Pass peaked at 61mph around 2pm Tuesday.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5270 / 198917-8 / 1940

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite loop from 3-4pm Tuesday – The southern end of a trough is moving through. Northerly flow behind the trough will clear the clouds out tonight.
Satellite loop from 3-4pm Tuesday – The southern end of a trough is moving through. Northerly flow behind the trough will clear the clouds out tonight.
Radar at 3:58pm Tuesday – The trough is moving through the area.  Scattered showers are mostly north of the San Juan mountains. Showers ahead of the trough are moving towards the northeast and showers behind the trough are moving towards the southeast.
Radar at 3:58pm Tuesday – The trough is moving through the area.  Scattered showers are mostly north of the San Juan mountains. Showers ahead of the trough are moving towards the northeast and showers behind the trough are moving towards the southeast.

Forecast highlights…

*** Dry through Saturday ***

*** A chance for snow Sunday night through Tuesday. ***

Rest of Tuesday… The trough is moving through and kicking up light scattered snowshowers over the mountains. Clouds will clear out and winds will decrease tonight behind the trough.

Winds… Winds will decrease through the evening.

Temps… Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Wednesday through Saturday… Wednesday and Thursday a transient ridge will give us lots of blue sky. Friday and Saturday clouds will increase ahead of the next trough. Temps will be near seasonal averages through Friday and then drop 5-10 degrees below average on Saturday.

Winds… Wednesday and Thursday afternoon winds will be 10-15mph. Friday and Saturday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Thursday and Friday highs will be around 50 to the high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Saturday highs will be around 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in mid-teens to mid-20s.

Sunday through Tuesday… The next low-pressure system will move through.  Today’s round of forecast models expect the system to be a bust for us, but there is still a lot of uncertainty of the storm’s track, timing, and strength.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 10-20mph

Temps… Sunday and Monday highs will be near 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.  Tuesday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

NBM snow to 11pm next Tuesday shows 1.9” near Pagosa, 3.1” near Chama, and 6-10” near Wolf Creek. The forecast models are yo-yoing back and forth between a decent storm and hardly anything.
NBM snow to 11pm next Tuesday shows 1.9” near Pagosa, 3.1” near Chama, and 6-10” near Wolf Creek.
The forecast models are yo-yoing back and forth between a decent storm and hardly anything.

The next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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