Cold tonight – Snow Sunday and Monday…

We had brief periods of big, fat snowflakes today. They were pretty but only amounted to a dusting. – Pic taken 10/30/2024

We had brief periods of big, fat snowflakes today. They were pretty but only amounted to a dusting. – Pic taken 10/30/2024

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Wednesday – 30 Oct 2024 – 3:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature on Tuesday was 55 shortly after midnight.  The low Tuesday was 28 shortly before midnight.  The low Wednesday morning was 27 and the high so far on Wednesday is 39.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Tuesday was 37mph and on Wednesday it was 24mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5569 / 1990226 / 1989

Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek reported another 3” of snow today for a storm total of 7”. Precip amounts were lower than I expected, especially for Wolf Creek.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from this morning ranged from 0.02” to 0.38”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from this morning ranged from 0.02” to 0.38”.
CoCoRaHS 2-day storm totals range from 0.02” to 0.46”. Storm totals were lower than I expected, especially for Wolf Creek.
CoCoRaHS 2-day storm totals range from 0.02” to 0.46”. Mark was the rain lottery just north of Hatcher Lake.
Storm totals were lower than I expected, especially for Wolf Creek.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite Wednesday afternoon – The trough is on our doorstep. It’s moving slowly east and weakening. Spotty showers will taper off this evening and then we’ll clear out.
Satellite Wednesday afternoon – The trough is on our doorstep. It’s moving slowly east and weakening. Spotty showers will taper off this evening and then we’ll clear out.
Radar at 3:14pm Wednesday – Scattered showers are moving west to east. Radar is not picking up all the showers. As I type I see a shower over Devil Mountain that isn’t on radar.  Snow and graupel will fall briefly with these showers. Accumulations will be minimal.
Radar at 3:14pm Wednesday – Scattered showers are moving west to east. Radar is not picking up all the showers. As I type, from my window I see a shower over Devil Mountain that isn’t on radar.  Snow and graupel will fall briefly with these showers. Accumulations will be minimal.

Forecast highlights…

*** Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be chilly with temps down to 10 in the cold spots. ***

*** Snow Sunday and Monday. ***

*** Another potential system Thursday and Friday. ***

*** It’s fun to see an active weather pattern! ***

Wednesday evening through Saturday evening… Wednesday evening scattered snowshowers will taper off. Parts of the valley will get a dusting, and the mountains could get another 1”.

Wednesday night the clouds will clear, and temps will cool off quickly.

Then a transient ridge will keep us dry and push occasional mid and upper-level clouds through our area.  Clouds will increase Saturday when the ridge moves to our east.

Winds…Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… *** Lows Wednesday night will be 10-20. *** Highs Thursday will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows Thursday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.  Friday and Saturday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Saturday night through Monday evening… The forecast models are coming into alignment with our next low-pressure system.  Timing and precip amounts vary, but here’s what I think right now…

Scattered snowshowers will start over the mountains after midnight Saturday and then over the valley around sunrise Sunday. Scattered showers will persist until the system moves through Monday evening.

Snow levels will be 7,500-8,000ft during the day and 6,500-7,000ft at night.

In the valley, snow that sticks overnight will melt as we warm up each day.  We might not need our snow shovels!

Snow amounts for this period:

Mountains above 9,000ft: 6-10”

Valley above 7,600ft: 2-3”

Valley below 7,600ft: 1-2”

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

NBM precip to late Monday evening shows 0.64” near Pagosa, 0.55” near Chama, and up to 1.5” in our mountains.
NBM precip to late Monday evening shows 0.64” near Pagosa, 0.55” near Chama, and up to 1.5” in our mountains.
NBM snow to late Monday evening shows 2” near Pagosa, 4.3” near Chama, and 10-16” in our mountains. I think these totals are little too high.
NBM snow to late Monday evening shows 2” near Pagosa, 4.3” near Chama, and 10-16” in our mountains. I think these totals are little too high.

Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening… Transient ridging will give us a brief break. Occasional patches of clouds will move through, and the mountains could get a few spotty snowshowers, especially on Wednesday.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low 40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Next Thursday and Friday… Some forecast models show another low-pressure system moving through, while other forecast models keep the system far to our southwest with little impact. I’m hoping for snow! Stay tuned for the details.

My next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

© 2026 Pagosa Weather 

Website Design by : Brandon